Green Zone starring Matt Damon is about a U.S. Army officer who goes rogue to hunt for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq after he discovers covert and faulty information. The film reunites Damon with Paul Greengrass, the director of the last two Bourne films. In fact, Green Zone looks like a prequel to the Bourne films. Same type of action and shaky camera technique as those films and that should help pull in people who love those films. On the negative side the film is based in Iraq. Most Iraq themed films have crashed and burned at the box office, the best example being recent Best Picture winner The Hurt Locker which has only managed $14.7M to date. That being said, Matt Damon does flex some box office muscle when cast in an action film. Look for Green Zone to shoot up about $16M this weekend. The film should collect about $55M during the Popcorn Period* and is slightly overvalued on The Cantor Exchange right now. The films movie contract is currently trading at $70 and I would sell it $62 or higher. 

She’s Out of My League starring Jay Baruschel, best known for supporting turns in Tropic Thunder and Knocked Up, plays an average Joe who meets the perfect woman. Due to lack of self confidence and ribbing from his friends and family he’s desperate to understand what this girl sees in him. The film is R-rated which will limit its potential audience, but the film hopes to achieve the same success as Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($17.7M opening) and I Love You, Man ($17.8M opening) but will likely fall short of that mark. Baruschel is unproven at the box office but this film is the first of three the young actor is starring in this year. He voices the title character in this month’s animated feature, How to Train Your Dragon and stars in this summer’s The Sorcerer’s Apprentice from Disney, both of which will more than likely be hits at the box office. Look for She’s Out of My League to collect about $12M over the weekend and $35M over the Popcorn Period.

Robert Pattinson best known for The Twilight Saga stars in weepy romantic drama Remember Me and will hope his Twihard fan base will follow him. Teenage girls are sure to come out in droves to see him but the film will have a tough time pulling in any other audiences. Kristen Stewart, the female lead of Twilight who shares much of the same fan base a Pattinson hasn’t been able to translate her success to her post Twilight films such as Adventureland, which opened to a paltry $5.7M despite really good reviews from critics. Look for Remember Me to perform slightly better and open to about $10M. The film should collect about $30M during the Popcorn Period.

The last new film of the weekend, nuptials comedy Our Family Wedding, stars America Ferrera, best known for her starring role on ABC’s Ugly Betty and Forest Whitaker. The film will appeal to both African American and Latina women who will surely drag their boyfriends or husbands with them. Look for Our Family Wedding to have about $8M in wedding gifts this weekend with a total of $25M over the Popcorn Period. 

Last weekend, Alice in Wonderland stunned the industry, opening with $116.1M. Even if the film drops 80% (it won’t) this weekend, Alice will be the #1 movie in the country for the second week in a row. Generally a hit family film will drop between 35%-40% in its sophomore frame, but because of its huge debut last weekend, Alice should fall a bit more than that. As the saying goes, the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Look for Wonderland to drop a reasonable 49% this weekend to collect another $59.2M. The film should have a total gross of roughly $205M after 10 days in multiplexes. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 

 

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.