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Mar
18
Written by:
Bill Bonfanti
3/18/2010 9:46 PM
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MARCH 19-21
This weekend three new films will challenge Alice in Wonderland for the box office throne and will fail in the attempt. Romantic action comedy The Bounty Hunter starring Jennifer Aniston and Gerard Butler has the most box office potential out of the new releases. Adapted from the best-selling book, Diary of a Wimpy Kid should do some decent business while sci-fi action flick Repo Men is set to crash and burn. Take a look. All of the films discussed this weekend are currently trading on the Cantor Exchange. The exchange is currently in mock trading but in a few short weeks around the end of April, the doors are going to open for real. You will be able to trade with real money!
THE BOUNTY HUNTER
Distributor – Sony
Cast – Jennifer Aniston, Gerard Butler, Christine Baranski
Director – Andy Tennant
Genre – Action Comedy
Theatre Count – 3074
Trailer – Click here
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The Bounty Hunter is a romantic action comedy. In the film Gerard Butler plays a bounty hunter who learns that his next target is his ex-wife, a reporter working on a murder cover-up played by Jennifer Aniston. Soon after they are reunited they are forced to run for their lives with a bunch of bad guys in hot pursuit. Aniston has had a pretty successful box office career so far with her biggest hits being comedies. However, in most of those comedy hits she starred with a box office comedy god. Take a look.
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Title/Co-star
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Opening Weekend
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Popcorn Period*
Total
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Bruce Almighty/Jim Carrey
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$67.9M
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$193.8M
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The Break Up/Vince Vaughn
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$39.2M
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$104.2M
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Along Came Polly/Ben Stiller
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$27.7M
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$75M
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So the question becomes… is Gerard Butler a box office comedy god? Can he match up to the greatness of Carrey, Vaughn and Stiller? I’m thinking no, he can’t, even though last year he starred in romantic comedy hit The Ugly Truth which made $77M during 4 weeks. Aniston and Butler should generate enough box office heat to make The Bounty Hunter a mid level hit.
Opening Weekend Prediction - $22M
Popcorn Period Prediction - $60M - $65M
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*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.
DIARY OF A WIMPY KID
Distributor – 20 th Century Fox
Cast – Zachary Gordon, Robert Capron, Rachael Harris
Director – Thor Freudenthal
Genre – Family Comedy
Theatre Count – 3077
Trailer – Click here
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Diary of a Wimpy Kid is based on the best-selling book series by Jeff Kinney which he was inspired to write after the success of his comic strip. The book is written much like a comic strip and I’m really not all that sure that it’s going to translate that well to the big screen. Wimpy Kid is facing major competition from Alice in Wonderland which is set to have a another terrific weekend at the box office and will more than likely be the #1 film in the country for the third week in a row. Next weekend DreamWorks unleashes How to Train Your Dragon which is going to be a big hit and I think that Wimpy Kid is quite frankly, going to take a beating. I took my kids to Wonderland, they want to see both Wimpy Kid and Dragon, but I can’t take them to every movie they want to see which I’m sure is the case in most households. We saw Alice, we’ll see Dragon, but Diary of A Wimpy Kid is gonna have to wait for DVD. The film will be a moderate hit at best.
Opening Weekend Prediction - $14M
Popcorn Period Prediction - $38M.
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REPO MEN
Distributor – Universal
Cast – Jude Law, Forest Whitaker, Liev Schreiber
Director – Miguel Sapochnik
Genre – Action Sci-Fi
Theatre Count - 2522
Trailer – Click here
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Repo Men is a sci-fi action film set in a future where artificial organs can be bought on credit. Jude Law and Forest Whitaker star as the “repo men” who will repossess your organ if you stop making payments on it. It’s a pretty interesting concept, but one with no cross spread appeal to other demographics other than video game playing young men between the ages of 15 and 25. People who went to films like Gamer starring Gerard Butler and Crank starring Jason Statham, both of which made about $20M during the Popcorn Period, will probably line up for this one, but that’s it. The film also boasts no real star power. Both Law and Whitaker have appeared in some big hits, but never as the lead. That being said, I think Repo Men’s box office chances are weak at best.
Opening Weekend Prediction - $7M
Popcorn Period Prediction - $20M
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To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.
To watch the very first episode of Box Office Bang Up with myself and co-host Frank Nocerino discussing this weekend’s movies, visit our Youtube channel. It is our very first attempt so being honest the video quality isn’t all that terrific, but the info is very good. That I can always guarantee. Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.
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RANK
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TITLE
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BILL’S PREDICTION
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1
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Alice in Wonderland
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$36.4M -42%
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2
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The Bounty Hunter
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$22M New
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3
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Diary of a Wimpy Kid
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$14M New
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4
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Repo Men
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$7M New
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5
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Green Zone
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$6.8M -52%
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6
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She's Out of My League
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$5.1M -48%
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7
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Shutter Island
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$4.9M -40%
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8
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Avatar
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$4.6M -30%
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9
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Our Family Wedding
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$4.3M -43%
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10
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The Ghost Writer
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$2.9M +138%
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*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.
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