Generally in this column, I estimate what each film will collect at the box office during the Popcorn Period* for the purpose of trading on the Cantor Exchange, but I won’t be doing that today. The Exchange was open for mock trading but the practice session has now ended. Due to compliance reasons I won’t go into here, Cantor Exchange will be closed until April 22^nd when real trading begins. That’s right, one month from now you will be able to trade movie futures contracts for real. Remember, your friendly neighborhood box office analyst is always here at FilmGo offering trading tips, so come back often for all of my box office predictions. Trading during the practice period was incredibly fun and I did really well. Over the six months that I traded I was up 150%. I turned $10,000 virtual dollars into $25,000 virtual dollars. I’ve posted a copy of my portfolio on the site so you can check it out.   It shows all the positions I held when the Exchange stopped trading and my gain/loss history from October 1^st 2009 when I began.

How to Train Your Dragon is sure to be the #1 film this weekend but how high can it soar? The best comparison for this film in terms of box office would be Dreamworks Monsters vs. Aliens which came out this weekend last year. That film opened with $59.3M and found its way to $198.4M by the end of its run in theatres. Dragon looks to fly on a similar trajectory.  It should make it to $200M, and will likely open with a little less than Monsters, but display stronger legs due to what is sure to be positive word of mouth. There are a few reasons why Dragon won’t open quite as big. 

Dragon is opening on a few less screens than Monsters. Monsters opened on 4100 screens whereas Dragon will be on 4000. There is also a lot more competition for the family audience this weekend than there was this time last year. Alice in Wonderland is still going strong and will provide competition for not only box office dollars but 3-D screens as well. Dragon will also have to contend with the second weekend of Diary of a Wimpy Kid which had a strong debut. Although I don’t consider this to be a negative in terms of box office I have to mention it anyway; Monsters had bigger stars than Dragon and that can be a deficit. To be honest I think this will have zero effect on the box office. Sure, the lead actor here is Jay Baruchel and he doesn’t have much strength at the box office (yet) but is he going to stop you from seeing the movie?  Would you want to see the movie more if the lead role was voiced by a more established box office star like Michael Cera? The answer to both questions is a resounding no in my book, but I could be wrong.   Look for How to Train Your Dragon to bring in about $50M this weekend.

John Cusack travels back to the 80’s in what might be the best title for a movie ever, Hot Tub Time Machine. Really… it tells you exactly what it is about, lets you know it is going to be silly and it also sets expectations pretty low which will insure that audiences will be pleasantly surprised by it. The film also stars Craig Robinson and Rob Corddry, but Cusack is the only one here who has any box office record to speak of. Cusack has always been hit or miss at the box office but he is coming off his biggest hit to date, 2012 ($166.1M total). The films couldn’t be less alike but nonetheless 2012 definitely boosted Cusack’s star power.

Hot Tub has been receiving solid marks from critics and hopes to find the same success as last year’s comedy mega hit The Hangover ($44.9M opening/$277.3M total). There is no chance that will happen. There was major buzz surrounding The Hangover months before its release and that isn’t really the case here. There is some excitement and anticipation for this film, but nowhere near the level of hype that The Hangover had. That film was also more accessible to female audiences whereas Hot Tub will play to mostly men under the age of 30. That being said, the marketplace is ripe for a new comedy with recent entries such as Cop Out and She’s Out of My League underperforming. Look for Hot Tub Time Machine to collect about $17M this weekend. 

Among holdovers, Alice in Wonderland lost a great deal of its 3-D screens to Dragon and will be in for a fairly steep decline this weekend. Look for The Mad Hatter and friends to drop about 52% this weekend to collect another $16.4M. This will bring its total to an eye popping $290M+ after four weeks of release.

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 

 

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.