Generally in this column, I estimate what each film will collect at the box office during the Popcorn Period* for the purpose of trading on the Cantor Exchange, but I won’t be doing that today. The Exchange was open for mock trading but the practice session has now ended. Due to compliance reasons I won’t go into here, Cantor Exchange will be closed until April 22^nd when real trading begins. That’s right, one month from now you will be able to trade movie futures contracts for real. Remember, your friendly neighborhood box office analyst is always here at FilmGo offering trading tips, so come back often for all of my box office predictions. Trading during the practice period was incredibly fun and I did really well. Over the six months that I traded I was up 150%. I turned $10,000 virtual dollars into $25,000 virtual dollars. I’ve posted a copy of my portfolio on the site so you can check it out.   It shows all the positions I held when the Exchange stopped trading and my gain/loss history from October 1^st 2009 when I began.

Romantic action comedy Date Night starring Steve Carell and Tina Fey is about a boring married couple who steal another couples reservations while on a date. This turns into a wild case of mistaken identity as the pair are chased down by corrupt cops and mobsters. The pairing of the two NBC stars is a match made in heaven and should certainly help steer Date Night into hit territory. The film also has a great supporting cast that includes Mark Wahlberg, James Franco and Mila Kunis and this will help entice audiences as well.   Director Shawn Levy is also no slouch at the box office. Take a look at how his other films performed. 

 

Date Night will also benefit from being the only big release of the weekend and entering a marketplace with no real competition for the over 25 date crowd. The Bounty Hunter is the closest competitor in terms of demographics, but that film is entering its fourth frame and is fading fast. It will only make about $3.2M this weekend. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married Too? may eat into Date Night’s potential slightly, but that film has a very front loaded audience who have already rushed out to see it. Last October, Couples Retreat, another comedy aimed at the over 25 date crowd, opened with an impressive $34.3M and capitalized on being the only major release of the weekend. Date Night should bring in much of the same crowd but will probably fall short of Retreat’s opening. Look for Steve and Tina to collect about $27M this weekend. 

Indie film Letters to God from Vivendi Entertainment will open on about 900 screens this weekend and should play well with Christian groups in the Bible Belt. There hasn’t been much of a marketing campaign for the film so it will have a difficult time reaching other demographics. Back in 2008, Kirk Cameron’s similarly Christian themed film Fireproof opened to a very good $6.8M on about the same amount of screens, but that film did have a better marketing campaign and Cameron is a trusted name among Christians. Letters to God features a cast of unknowns for the most part. Look for Letters to God to divine about $1.5M this weekend.

Among holdovers, last weekend’s champ Clash of the Titans lost some potential box office due to the Easter holiday and as a result will have a better hold than it normally would. The film is still in for a steep decline but it won’t be as bad as it could’ve been. Word of mouth hasn’t been that great for the film and this will certainly take its toll this weekend. Normally I would expect Clash to plunge nearly 70% based on the underwhelming reaction from audiences. Look for Titans to drop about 60% to collect another $24.5M. This will bring its 10 day total to roughly $110M.

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 

 

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.