Generally in this column, I estimate what each film will collect at the box office during the Popcorn Period* for the purpose of trading on the Cantor Exchange, but I won’t be doing that today. The Exchange was open for mock trading but the practice session has now ended. Due to compliance reasons I won’t go into here, Cantor Exchange will be closed until April 22^nd when real trading begins. That’s right; in a few short weeks from now you will be able to trade movie futures contracts for real. Remember, your friendly neighborhood box office analyst is always here at FilmGo offering trading tips, so come back often for all of my box office predictions. Trading during the practice period was incredibly fun and I did really well. Over the six months that I traded I was up 150%. I turned $10,000 virtual dollars into $25,000 virtual dollars. I’ve posted a copy of my portfolio on the site so you can check it out.   It shows all the positions I held when the Exchange stopped trading and my gain/loss history from October 1^st 2009 when I began.

Kick-Ass is based on the best-selling comic series from creator Mark Millar and is brought to the big screen by director Mathew Vaughn. This is the second Millar series to be turned into a movie. His first was 2008’s Angelina Jolie action vehicle, Wanted, which had an impressive run at the box office. Wanted opened with $50.9M and went on to collect a total of $134.3M. I don’t expect Kick-Ass to reach those heights, but it should perform fairly well. 

Kick-Ass is about a teenager who decides to become a crime fighting superhero despite the fact that he has no super powers. In his quest to battle crime he inspires other non-powered humans to don cape and cowl and join him on his crusade. The film stars newcomer Aaron Johnson in the titular role and he is joined by Nicholas Cage and Christopher Mintz-Plasse, best known for Superbad and Role Models. The R-rated flick is extremely violent and is packed with enough crude language to make even Quentin Tarantino blush. The reviews for the film have been really solid and it has been generating strong buzz since premiering at the South by Southwest film festival, but will that translate into huge box office dollars? I don’t really think so. 

The box office potential for Kick-Ass is limited for many reasons. First the restrictive R-rating is going to keep teenage fanboys out of theatres and they normally would be lining up for a film like this in droves. The trailers and commercial spots don’t really give a good sense of the humor and violence that encapsulates the film and instead make it look like your run of the mill superhero movie or worse yet, a parody of comic book based films. There is also no strong female presence here which will cause disinterest among women of all ages. Wanted drew that audience in because of Angelina Jolie. The audience for this film is extremely limited. It will appeal to young men between the ages of 18 and 30, but that’s about it. Nicholas Cage is the only star here with any real clout with audiences but his box office record is so erratic that you can’t even factor in his presence here. Look for young men to propel Kick-Ass to a solid opening of about $22M and for the film to experience steep declines in the weeks ahead despite what is sure to be positive word of mouth. 

This weekend’s second offering is Death at a Funeral, a remake of the little seen British film with the same title from 2007 that was directed by Frank Oz (the voice of Yoda and director of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels and Bowfinger to name but a few). The new version is produced by and stars Chris Rock and teams him up with the comedic talents of Martin Lawrence and Tracy Morgan. The film features a solid cast that also includes Danny Glover, Zoe Saldana, James Marsden, Peter Dinklage and many others. Interesting little trivia fact, Dinklage appears in both versions of Funeral. The reviews have been mixed, but thanks to laugh filled trailers and commercial spots, they shouldn’t have much of an impact here.   

Rock has yet to establish himself as a big box office star with all his films that feature him in the lead role fizzling at the box office. Lawrence’s box office appeal has diminished quite a bit in the last few years and Morgan is still looking for a break out role after 2008’s First Sunday ($17.7M opening, $37.9M total) and this year’s Cop Out ($18.2M opening, $44.3M total) failed to bring in sizable audiences. Check out how some of Rock and Lawrence’s other films (not including animated films) performed.

 

 

Rock’s biggest hit was The Longest Yard but that was really an Adam Sandler movie with him playing second banana. Lawrence’s biggest hit was Wild Hogs which was an ensemble comedy that also starred John Travolta, Tim Allen and William H. Macy. The fact is they don’t have much box office strength by themselves, but together and combined with Morgan; Death at a Funeral should perform fairly well. Look for Funeral to open with about $20M.

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 

 UPDATED Friday 4/16 at 10:00 am

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.