Generally in this column, I estimate what each film will collect at the box office during the Popcorn Period* for the purpose of trading on the Cantor Exchange, but I won’t be doing that today. The Exchange was open for mock trading but the practice session has now ended. Cantor expects to receive final regulatory approval on April 20^th and the site will be open for real money trading shortly thereafter. That’s right, any day now you will be able to trade movie futures contracts for real. Remember, your friendly neighborhood box office analyst is always here at FilmGo offering trading tips, so come back often for all of my box office predictions. Trading during the practice period was incredibly fun and I did really well. Over the six months that I traded I was up 150%. I turned $10,000 virtual dollars into $25,000 virtual dollars. I’ve posted my portfolio up until the last day of the practice trading so that you can look at it. It will show all the positions I held when the Exchange stopped trading and my gain/loss history from October 1^st 2009 when I began.

Jennifer Lopez returns to her romantic comedy roots after a five year absence with The Back-up Plan. The film is about a single woman who decides to get pregnant through artificial insemination and then meets the man of her dreams. This marks a return to form for Lopez but are audiences really clamoring for her return to the big screen? I don’t really think that they are. Here’s a look at how her last 10 films have performed at the box office.

 

Lopez has had the most success with romantic comedies as evidenced by the grosses of Monster-in-Law, Maid in Manhattan and The Wedding Planner but she has had a few misfires in the genre as well. Jersey Girl was a bomb and Gigli is known as one of the biggest disasters in box office history.  The reviews for The Back-up Plan have been pretty dismal and they are certainly going to have an impact here. Look for it to debut with about $13M.

The Losers based on the DC/Vertigo comic book series has an impressive cast that includes Jeffrey Dean Morgan, Chris Evans and Zoe Saldana but despite appearing in box office hits, none of these actors have any real box office muscle. True Saldana co-starred in last year’s hit Star Trek reboot and the biggest blockbuster of all time Avatar, but those films would’ve likely been big hits with or without her. The Losers has a dedicated fanbase because of the comic series but it’s not exactly a huge one. Comic book based films don’t really fare that well unless they are focused on major characters like Spider-Man, Batman or Wolverine (to name but a few) and this film will not be an exception to that rule. Last weekend’s Kick-Ass was also based on a best-selling comic series and despite rave reviews, it only managed to debut with $19.8M. Reviews for The Losers have been mixed at best. Kick-Ass definitely has a bigger fanbase than The Losers, but The Losers has a more accessible PG-13 rating. The Losers will likely collect about $10M this weekend.

Oceans is the second documentary from Disney Nature and is being released this weekend to capitalize on Earth Day much like last year’s Earth. In fact, Oceans opens today (Earth Day) for what will be a 4 day weekend launch. Disney released Earth on the same day last year to good results. The film made $4M on its first day and went on to collect $8.8M over the weekend for a 5 day tally of $14.5M. Oceans should have similar results albeit slightly smaller because it is debuting on about 600 screens less than Earth. Look for a $4M opening day followed by another $7M over the weekend for a 4 day total of $11M. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 

 

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.