Generally in this column, I estimate what each film will collect at the box office during the Popcorn Period* for the purpose of trading on the Cantor Exchange, but I won’t be doing that today. The Exchange was open for mock trading but the practice session has now ended. Cantor received final regulatory approval on April 20^th to open a futures exchange but now must wait until June before receiving approval for the actual futures contracts to be traded. Once that happens, the site will be open for real money trading shortly thereafter. That’s right, any day now you will be able to trade movie futures contracts for real. Remember, your friendly neighborhood box office analyst is always here at FilmGo offering trading tips, so come back often for all of my box office predictions. Trading during the practice period was incredibly fun and I did really well. Over the six months that I traded I was up 150%. I turned $10,000 virtual dollars into $25,000 virtual dollars. I’ve posted my portfolio up until the last day of the practice trading so that you can look at it. It will show all the positions I held when the Exchange stopped trading and my gain/loss history from October 1^st 2009 when I began.

A Nightmare on Elm Street is the latest in a long line of horror remakes from the 80’s. Most of these remakes have been fairly successful and some have done very well at the box office. Take a look.

 

The more iconic horror characters such as Michael Meyers (Halloween) and Jason Voorhees (Friday the 13^th) have fared better at the box office than the other remakes and it is fair to say that Freddy Krueger is as popular as those other characters, if not more so. In fact, in terms of popularity, I would have to say that the two most popular horror creations are Jason and Freddy. I would actually say that Freddy is the most popular character, but my opinion is biased because I was a fan of the Elm Street series growing up and never much cared for the Friday films. Friday the 13^th had the biggest opening by far out of all the remakes and Elm Street should perform very similar to that film. Of course, Jason was able to capitalize on the film actually being released on Friday the 13^th and this could give it a slight edge in terms of opening weekend. The film then suffered one of the biggest drops in box office history, plummeting 80% in its second frame. Elm Street will have a steep decline next weekend, but I don’t think it will be quite as large. It will probably be in the neighborhood of 65-70%. 

The Elm Street makeover does have one major thing going for it that the other remakes did not; the inspired casting of Jackie Earle Haley as Krueger. Haley doesn’t have an established track record at the box office, although he won himself legions of fans after his terrific performance in last year’s Watchmen. It didn’t matter who played any of the other horror icons, but unlike those other characters, Krueger has personality and casting the right actor in the role is essential to Elm Street’s success. I’m going to go with my gut here. Freddy Krueger will scare up about $42M this weekend, just edging out Friday the 13^th’s opening weekend. 

Brendan Fraser will attempt once again to have a box office hit with a family comedy in this weekend’s Furry Vengeance. The film is about a real estate developer who is terrorized by woodland creatures because he plans to destroy the forest they live in and build new homes. It is a very silly premise that most young children will enjoy but parents will probably try to avoid this film like the plague. I know I am. Fraser’s biggest box office successes have been action films (The Mummy films), while his greatest critical successes have been in dramas (Crash, Gods and Monsters). So why does he keep making family films that ultimately flop with both moviegoers and critics? I wish I knew. Take a look at how Fraser’s other family films have fared at the box office.

 

Journey was a solid hit, but it can be argued that it was the films action element that helped it thrive at the box office. George of the Jungle was also a big hit but Fraser’s other four attempts at winning over the family audience were disasters of epic proportion. Unfortunately for Fraser (I happen to like him quite a bit), Furry Vengeance is going to fall into the disaster category. Look for the film to collect about $8M, enough for third place, and for it to disappear from multiplexes soon after. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 

 

*The Popcorn Period – The settlement date for all movie contracts takes place approximately four weeks after a film has been released in theatres. It is during these 4 weeks that a film will collect money at the box office. If a film makes $50M at the box office during these 4 weeks, the contract will cash out at $50. I refer to this time frame as the Popcorn Period.