The first Iron Man also opened at the start of the summer season to a whopping $102.1M (including Thursday evening showings), had great legs and went on to collect $318.3M. The film was well received by critics and audiences alike and has most definitely won over more fans on DVD and cable. Like most hugely anticipated sequels, Iron Man 2 will most certainly outgross its predecessor in the long run and will definitely have a bigger opening weekend. How big though? There are quite a few factors to look at and most of them are positive.

Being the film that kicks off the summer, Iron Man 2 has little to no competition. Sure Freddy Krueger is only heading into his second weekend, but horror films, especially those with a big fanbase, tend to suffer huge declines in their second frames. Elm Street might actually be helped by Iron Man 2 and capture some ticket sales from moviegoers who get sold out of Iron Man.

Generally a sequel will perform at the box office based on how audiences responded to the prior film in the series. These films are generally critic proof as audiences feel the need to decide for themselves. Look at Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen. The first film was extremely popular and even though critics trashed the sequel, fans of the original came out in droves to see it. Fallen went on to collect about $80M more than the original. The same can be said for Pirates of the Caribbean. The first film was adored by audiences and even though the second one kind of sucked, it still outgrossed the original. The box office fallout for the franchise didn’t occur until the third film opened. Because the second film wasn’t all that good, the third film took a hit at the box office. Take a look. 

 

One way or another, Iron Man 2 will be critic proof, but the film, although not scoring quite as high as the original, is still tracking pretty well with critics. Iron Man showed impressive legs throughout its run due to terrific word of mouth and has gained many new fans that missed it in theatres due to DVD and cable. This will increase its overall box office and the urgency to see it on opening weekend. Fans of the original that didn’t see the first film on opening weekend will more than likely want to see part 2 as soon as possible, thus giving Iron Man a shot at the opening weekend record. Here’s a look at how some other sequels opened in comparison to their predecessors.

 

The X-Men films are a good comparison because they are also based on a Marvel comic book, X2 was also the lead off film for summer of 2003, but I don’t think those films really had a chance to win over as broad an audience as Iron Man did. Twilight is notable because that film won over many fans through DVD and cable, however, New Moon’s opening weekend was inflated by teenage girls going to see it multiple times over the three days. That being said, I don’t expect Iron Man 2 to have quite as big a jump in percentage as New Moon did. The jump between Batman Begins and The Dark Knight was staggering, but that film had quite a few things going for it that Iron Man does not. There was major curiosity about this film due to the untimely death of Heath Ledger. The film also had a higher percentage bump than Iron Man will because Batman Begins didn’t have a huge opening because of the last film in the franchise, 1997’s atrocious Batman & Robin. The Dark Knight also had the advantage of opening in the middle of the summer when college kids are home from school. Batman Begins and Iron Man do share some similarities; both films were highly regarded by audiences and critics and both films went on to win more fans after their theatrical runs. Pirates was a surprise hit and as such the sequel performed really well at the box office. The original didn’t have nearly as big an opening as Iron Man did, so 190% jump is definitely out of the cards here. The last example on the chart Transformers isn’t a straight up comparison because the first film opened on a Tuesday and the sequel opened on a Wednesday. Even still, the sequel experienced a significant bump over the Friday to Sunday span. I would argue that had Revenge of the Fallen opened on a Friday, it would’ve easily beaten The Dark Knight’s opening weekend record. 

Iron Man also has the advantage of being on more IMAX screens than the films talked about above, giving it the opportunity to sell more tickets at a premium. Regular ticket prices are also 6% higher than they were in 2008 when The Dark Knight set the record. Another advantage that Iron Man 2 has over the caped crusaders sequel is a broader audience. The Dark Knight was a bit too intense for kids and Iron Man will easily pull in many young boys. I’ll be taking my 6 year old son tomorrow but he’s going to have to wait another 4 or 5 years before I allow him to watch Christopher Nolan’s Batman films. With all this in mind, I think Robert Downey Jr. and friends are going to break the record. I expect it to have a similar percentage jump to X2 and Revenge of the Fallen, only slightly higher due to ticket price inflation and more IMAX venues. Look for Iron Man 2 to jump about 70% over the original to collect an astounding $170M this weekend. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.