Ridley Scott and Russell Crowe bring us an updated version of legendary hero Robin Hood and being completely honest, ten years ago I would’ve been psyched for this film… now, not so much. Do we need another film about Robin Hood and his merry men? Although in Scott’s version, Robin’s men don’t seem to be all that merry. In fact the film looks rather dour and seems like a rehash of Gladiator set in Sherwood Forest. If the trailer is any indication, this film is lacking the wit, charm and derring-do that the character is famous for. It makes me wonder why they even chose to make the movie about Robin and not a new fictional character. 

Ten years ago, Scott and Crowe set the box office on fire with Gladiator ($34.8M/$187.7M) but things have changed since then. The duo has worked on four films (including Robin Hood) since then to mixed results. Crowe is not the box office gladiator he once was. With the exception of American Gangster (also directed by Scott), Crowe hasn’t had a breakout hit in the last five years. Take a look. 

 

Robin Hood should perform better than Crowe’s last few films, but don’t expect it to be a breakout hit. The film should appeal to older men, but younger men, under the age of 25 with have little to no interest. They’ll either skip this weekend entirely or just go see Iron Man 2 again. The truth is, in this day and age of remakes, Robin Hood is a character ripe for a remake. It’s been twenty years since Kevin Costner strapped on a bow and wore the green tights and although his version was an okay movie for its time, the character could use a reboot. Unfortunately, it seems that Scott and Crowe have excised everything that makes the character interesting in favor of a more serious Robin. The character is supposed to be a young, witty, swashbuckling, ladies man with charisma to spare, not an old war veteran with zero personality. Given, Costner is not the most charismatic actor to ever appear on screen, but at least he tried his best to get into the spirit of the character. 

The reviews haven’t been that great and although some films are critic proof, this is not one of them. The target audience of men over the age of 30 pay attention to reviewers and may not come out to support this film if they think it will be a letdown. They’ll probably just rent Gladiator instead. Look for Robin Hood to steal about $32M this weekend. 

Letters to Juliet stars Amanda Seyfried (hot off of box office hit Dear John) and Vanessa Redgrave. The film is about an American girl on vacation in Italy who finds an unanswered “letter to Juliet”, one of thousands left at the fictional lovers Verona courtyard, which are typically answered by the “secretaries of Juliet”. She then decides to go on a quest to reunite the two long lost lovers. Juliet should benefit from the current lack of movies aimed at females and will serve as smart counterprogramming to all the testosterone laced films currently occupying theatres. Although strictly a chick flick, the film should appeal to a broad age range of women. Young women will be interested because of Seyfried and Redgrave will make the film accessible to mothers and grandmothers. Look for Letters to Juliet to collect about $15M this weekend.

The last new film of the weekend is sports themed, rom-com, Just Wright, starring Queen Latifah and Common. The film is about a physical therapist who falls for a basketball player she is helping recover from a career threatening injury. The marketing has been fairly weak; in fact I don’t think I ever saw a commercial for it. Typically urban based comedies don’t fare that well at the box office unless Tyler Perry’s name appears above the credits and Just Wright will not be an exception to the rule. The film has competition for the female audience from fellow newbie Letters to Juliet and will appeal mostly to African-American women. They may try to convince their husbands or boyfriends to go with them because of the basketball theme, but will have a hard time doing so because the NBA playoffs are airing Friday and Saturday night. I really doubt any man is going to see a movie about basketball when he can stay home and watch the playoffs, which are bound to be more exciting. Look for Just Wright to collect about $8M this weekend. 

Iron Man 2 should have no trouble at all staying on top this weekend. The reviews, although not as terrific as the first film, have been genuinely solid and audience word of mouth has been mostly positive. Here’s a look at how some other superhero films performed in their second weekends. 

 

The two films with the smallest drop had an advantage over Iron Man 2. The first Iron Man was a surprise hit and had terrific buzz going into its second frame and The Dark Knight was riding a wave of critical acclaim. The other three films experienced drops of 60+%, but they weren’t loved by either audiences or critics. Iron Man 2 sits comfortably in the middle. While not quite as great a film as the original, audiences are still enjoying it. Although Robin Hood and NBA playoffs will provide some competition for the armored avenger, the film should still hold up pretty well in its second frame. Look for Iron Man 2 to fly off with another $55.1M down about 57%. This will bring the films total to an impressive $215M after ten days. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.