Shrek Forever After is a tough film to predict. It’s not very often that a movie franchise extends into its fourth installment and this is the first time an animated franchise has done this. There will be plenty of part 4’s crowding multiplexes in the near future however. Just on the horizon; Pirates of the Caribbean 4, Ice Age 4, Scream 4 and American Pie 4 to name but a few. Some fourth installments have been successful (Lethal Weapon 4, Fast & Furious, The Final Destination) while others crashed and burned (Batman & Robin, Superman 4: The Quest for Peace). Shrek is unique in that it is an animated family film coming off a third installment that didn’t exactly please its audience. Take a look at how the other Shrek films performed at the box office.

 

As I always say, the opening weekend for the latest film in a franchise is determined by the reaction to the last installment of the series. If part 2 is loved by audiences, part 3 will more than likely have a bigger opening weekend. If you look at the Shrek films, my case is made. Shrek 2 performed super well at the box office because the first film was simply adored by audiences. Shrek 3 improved upon the second films opening weekend based on the love for that film. Here’s where the Shrek franchise runs into a problem. The third film wasn’t all that well received by audiences which is evidenced by its overall gross compared to part 2. Shrek the Third while still a huge hit, made $120M less than part 2. This being the case, it is a foregone conclusion that Shrek Forever After will open lower than Shrek the Third. How much lower though?

Normally at this point in the prediction process, I would drop part 3’s opening by about 30% to determine the opening weekend for part 4. That would put Shrek Forever After on course to collect $75M this weekend. I think part 4 can do better than that for a multitude of reasons however. Despite the fact that Shrek the Third wasn’t all that well liked, the characters are still beloved and there is enough audience goodwill towards them to generate sizable box office. I’m also betting on the fact that whether your kids loved part 3 or not, they still want to see Shrek and Donkey’s latest adventure. My daughter has been asking me when the movie is coming out every other day for the last 5 months. I didn’t particularly love the last film (I actually didn’t really like it at all) but am I not going to take my kids to see the latest one because of that? No way and I’m sure most parents will feel the same way.

Shrek 4 also has no real competition at the box office. The last two family films to be released were How to Train Your Dragon which was a huge hit, but it’s entering its ninth weekend in theatres and Furry Vengeance which was an outright bomb. Iron Man 2 may provide a bit of competition, but most kids who were interested in seeing that have already convinced Mom or Dad to take them. The biggest advantage Shrek Forever After has… 3-D! Based on the success of Avatar, Alice in Wonderland and Clash of the Titans, it has been proven that audiences are willing to shell out the extra cash to see films in the third dimension. True, eventually there will be a film released in 3-D that doesn’t benefit from it, but Shrek Forever After is not that film. Shrek is also going to be shown in IMAX 3-D and got plenty of exposure being one of the prime trailers shown in front of Avatar and Alice. I truly believe that the film’s opening weekend will be less than part 3, but it'll still be a nice opening. Look for the big green guy to collect about $80M this weekend.

Saturday Night Live has produced many big box office stars over the years. Bill Murray, Eddie Murphy, Mike Meyers, Adam Sandler and Will Ferrell to name but a few. Is Will Forte, star of MacGruber destined to be the next big star to emerge from the veteran sketch show? Not bloody likely. If I had to guess who the next breakout box office star from SNL will be, I’d say Bill Hader. MacGruber has experienced some hype since its debut at South by Southwest and some oddly glowing reviews, but can this really help the films box office chances? The film is based on a painfully unfunny SNL skit and the trailer (in my opinion) doesn’t have a single funny moment. The film should only appeal to teenage boys, but they can’t even get in to see the movie due its restrictive R-rating. The latest commercial spots have highlighted the good reviews and may convince some young men to check it out. The one thing I find truly troubling in terms of the reviews are the fact that the film will not be screened for the rest of the nations critics before its release. This makes me think that the studio has no real faith in the film despite its success at South by Southwest. Will Forte has no box office track record to speak of. His only starring role was in 2007’s The Brothers Solomon which couldn’t even eke out $1M at the box office. Look for MacGruber to make about $5M this weekend and if it were to open to less, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised.

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.