Two years ago, Sex and the City was a surprise hit, opening with an impressive $56.8M and collecting a total of $152.6M. The sequel should perform just as well; if not slightly better, despite terrible reviews from critics. Sex and the City has a huge, loyal fanbase that will not be swayed one way or another by reviews. The opening weekend for this film is slightly tricky to predict because it is a 4 day holiday weekend and to make matters worse, the film is opening on Thursday for a 5 day launch. Like most sequels, attendance will be front loaded and more than likely, Thursday and Friday will be its biggest days. I would expect the film to collect about $20M on its opening day, slightly lower than the first films opening day bow of $26.3M on a Friday. With much of the audience coming out to see the film on its first day of release, the weekend tally will be diluted. Look for Carrie Bradshaw and friends to gross about $48M over the Friday to Monday span for a 5 day total of $68M. 

Based on the hit video game series, Prince of Persia stars Jake Gyllenhaal and is brought to you by producer Jerry Bruckheimer and Disney. They are clearly hoping to emulate the success of Pirates of the Caribbean, but my guess is that Prince will fall way short of that mark. Pirates opened with $46.6M and due to terrific word of mouth, displayed incredible legs and eventually sailed off with a total of $305.4M. I expect Persia to open similarly to Pirates, with the exception that Persia’s opening will be spread across 4 days versus Pirates traditional 3 day opening. That is where the similarities end though. People were excited to see Johnny Depp play Jack Sparrow but the same can’t be said about Gyllenhaal. True, he is a respected actor, but he doesn’t really have any box office chops (Depp didn’t at the time either) or the loyal fanbase that Depp has. I also think Gyllenhaal is woefully miscast in this role based on what I’ve seen, but I will reserve judgment until I see the film tomorrow. Look for Prince of Persia to collect about $40M over the holiday frame but get swallowed up quickly as more and more summer movies open in the weeks to come. 

The only holdover that truly matters here is Shrek Forever After. The fourth film in the franchise got off to a disappointing (for the franchise) start, grossing only $70.8M last weekend but I think it will have a good hold this weekend due to positive word of mouth. According to CinemaScore, audiences are grading the film as an A which indicates that it should perform well in the weeks ahead. Hell, at the screening I attended, the audience broke into applause at the end of the movie. The Shrek Films always open the weekend before Memorial Day and that has worked out pretty well in terms of box office. The first film didn’t drop off at all in its second weekend, whereas Shrek 2 slipped only 33% and Shrek the Third plummeted 56%. The latest film didn’t open nearly as high as the third film ($121.6M) and I believe the old adage, the bigger they are, the harder they fall will prove true here. Shrek 4 also seems to be more liked than the third film which should mean a smaller drop off. The film should fall about 40% over the three day portion of the weekend, but will only be down about 30% when Monday is factored into the total. Look for the mighty, green ogre to collect another $50M over the 4 day weekend. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.