Knight and Day is yet another romantic comedy disguised as an action movie. We’ve already had similar films this year such as Killers starring Ashton Kutcher and Katherine Heigl and The Bounty Hunter starring Jennifer Aniston and Gerard Butler. Both of those films underperformed at the box office and despite heavy hitters Cruise and Diaz, it looks like Knight will suffer the same fate. Don’t get me wrong, it will make more than those films, but it won’t be enough for the film to be considered a big hit. Reviews have been mixed (I enjoyed it, but was also disappointed by it) and the film will mostly appeal to adults who tend to pay attention to critics. Cruise and Diaz have both seen their box office muscle diminish over the last couple of years and Knight is a bit of a comeback vehicle for both of them, but unfortunately, it is not going to do much to help their sagging careers. Knight is the perfect movie for the date crowd and as such, should play well on Friday and Saturday nights, but it will probably have a difficult time drawing in a younger audience, which is essential for it to become a big hit. My hopes were high for this film and a few weeks ago, I would’ve said that it will open to about $38M but things have changed. The move to a Wednesday opening will certainly dilute its weekend box office and the reviews aren’t helping matters. Look for Knight and Day to collect about $22M over the weekend.

Grown Ups reunites Adam Sandler with his SNL buddies Chris Rock, David Spade and Rob Schneider and also with Kevin James who is filling in for the late Chris Farley. They play five old camp buddies who reunite to reminisce about their childhoods. Like most of Sandler’s films, Grown Ups is being trashed by critics, but Sandler is about as review proof as you can get. His audience couldn’t care less about what critics say. Sandler has had an impressive run at the box office and Grown Ups should continue that trend. Here’s a look at how other Sandler comedies have performed. 

 

Looking at the chart, it is difficult to argue with Sandler’s success at the box office. 10 out of 16 of his comedies have grossed $100M+ and 9 of them have opened north of $30M. It is pretty impressive. The only film in the last decade that underperformed was last year’s Funny People written and directed by Judd Apatow and in all fairness (even though I included it in the chart) that film was closer to a drama than a comedy. 

Grown Ups is entering the marketplace at the right time as there are no straight up comedies out right now except for Get Him to the Greek and that film is only going to bring in about $3.4M this weekend. Sure, Knight and Day and The A-Team definitely provide some laughs, but neither can be put in the same category. Grown Ups should have a typical Sandler sized opening, but moving forward the film could have some trouble. The truth is, Grown Ups looks like a family friendly comedy, but it really isn’t. There is plenty of cursing and suggestive and crude humor in the film and when word gets out, this could halt its momentum at the box office.  Nonetheless the film should make it to about $140M mark and reach the heights of Sandler’s biggest hits. Look for Grown Ups to make about $40M this weekend. 

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.