
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF AUGUST 20-22
Although technically there are a few more weekends until Labor Day, Sly Stallone officially closed out the summer movie season last weekend with his ensemble action flick The Expendables. There are quite a few new releases hitting theatres this weekend as studios attempt to burn off some stinkers in these last dog days of summer. The five new films competing for your box office dollars are; family film Nanny McPhee Returns, spoof comedy Vampires Suck (opening on Wednesday), 3-D horror reboot Piranha 3D, urban comedy The Lottery Ticket and rom-com The Switch. Last weekend was the battle of testosterone vs. estrogen with The Expendables facing off against Eat Pray Love and it looks like these two films will once again be battling it out for 1st place. Who will emerge the champ? Take a look.
Emma Thompson returns as Nanny McPhee in a sequel that I doubt anyone was anxiously waiting for. The original came out in January of 2006 and opened with $14.5M. Opening in a more crowded summer field Nanny McPhee Returns shouldn’t open quite as well. Look for it to open with about $10.5M this weekend.
You’ve probably guessed already that comedy spoof Vampires Suck attempts to lampoon vampire movies such as Twilight. I don’t normally allow my opinions about movies to emerge in this column and I judge the films I write about purely on their potential at the box office. That being said… I hate these retarded spoof movies. Disaster Movie, Epic Movie, Superhero Movie and all of their brethren are the lowest form of filmmaking and I hate that they even exist or that any human being will actually pay for a ticket for this tripe. Okay, now that that’s out of my system… how much money will Vampires Suck make this weekend? The film opens on Wednesday which will dilute its opening weekend take. This means there is no chance of the film (using the term very loosely) taking the top spot this weekend. Thank God! It’s the little things in life people. The film should make about $4M on Wednesday, drop to a $1.5M take on Thursday and then collect another $10M over the three day portion of the weekend.
Riding both the nostalgia wave and the 3D craze, Piranha 3D swims into theatres this weekend. The film actually boasts an impressive cast including Elisabeth Shue, Ving Rhames, Christopher Lloyd and Richard Dreyfuss (in a cameo) but nonetheless, this movie will sleep with the fishes. I’m sure it is fairly awful and audiences will more than likely know to stay away from this stinker. The fact that it is 3D almost smacks of desperation and audiences have proved that they will not spend the extra dollars unless it is really worth it. Look for Piranha 3D to eat up about $9M this weekend.
Bow Wow and Ice Cube star in urban comedy The Lottery Ticket about a young man who wins the lottery and attempts in vain to keep it from his neighborhood. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it now… unless Tyler Perry’s name appears above the credits, urban comedies don’t perform very well at the box office. Look for Bow Wow and friends to win about $9.5M this weekend.
The last new film for the weekend is romantic comedy, The Switch, starring Jennifer Aniston and Jason Bateman. The film hasn’t been too heavily marketed and awareness isn’t very high. I love both of these stars and I’m sure they are quite good together, but together they have no box office strength whatsoever. Aniston only succeeds at the box office when she co-stars with a high profile star such as Vince Vaughn or Jim Carrey and Bateman has yet to successfully carry a film on his own. Look for The Switch to open with a modest $7.5M.
With all of the new films performing poorly, this leaves the door open for another box office battle between Sylvester Stallone and Julia Roberts. The Expendables ($34.8M) destroyed Eat Pray Love ($23.1M) in a head to head battle last weekend but it is going to be a much tighter race this weekend. Action movies tend to fall about 55%-60% after their debut frames and The Expendables should fare about the same. Look for it to drop 55% to collect another $15.7M. Eat Pray Love should display much better legs than that. Look for it to drop about 42% to $13.4M and just miss first place yet again.
To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.
Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on
Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.
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RANK
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TITLE
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BILL’S PREDICTION
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1
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The Expendables
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$15.7M -55%
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2
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Eat Pray Love
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$13.4M -42%
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3
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Nanny McPhee Returns
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$10.5M New
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4
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Vampires Suck
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$10M (3 day)
$15.5M (5 day) New
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5
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The Other Guys
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$9.7M -44%
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6
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The Lottery Ticket
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$9.5M New
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7
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Piranha 3D
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$9M New
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8
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The Switch
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$7.5M New
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9
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Inception
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$7.3M -35%
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10
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Scott Pilgrim vs. the World
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$5.3M -50%
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