Any one of the three newbies could take the top spot this weekend, but my money is on Machete. Machete is based on a fake trailer that played in between the Grindhouse double feature from directors Robert Rodriguez and Quentin Tarantino back in 2007. The film stars Danny Trejo as the titular character and he is joined by an impressive cast that includes Robert De Niro, Jessica Alba, Don Johnson and Steven Seagal.  The Grindhouse films didn’t light the box office on fire and although the faux trailer for Machete generated great buzz, I don’t think this film has much chance of succeeding at the box office beyond its first weekend. Grindhouse brought in a paltry $25M when it was released and Machete should do about the same when it is all said and done. Tarantino and Rodrigues set out to pay homage to the B movies of the 70’s and the problem was that they largely succeeded. Those “grindhouse” pictures from the 70’s were terrible and our favorite maverick directors fully realized their goal of making two terrible movies, Planet Terror and Death Proof. Sometimes things are better left in the past. 

That being said, Machete is hopefully a better movie than those other two dogs, more in the vein of Rodriguez’s Desperado, starring Antonio Banderas. To be honest, when I first heard about this movie, my initial thought was that it would open to about $6M. I now it will perform better for a couple of reasons. Rodriguez does have a solid fanbase and I’m sure they will be out in force. Machete is also getting decent reviews, which should help slightly. The competition is light with only Sly Stallone’s action ensemble The Expendables posing a serious threat and that film is entering its fourth frame. The Expendables has also wetted public appetite for aging action heroes and Machete may benefit from that same goodwill. As I said earlier, Machete has to make its money this weekend because it stands no chance of crossing over to a mainstream audience in the weeks ahead. Look for Machete to carve out about $12M over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend with a 4 day total of $14M.

George Clooney is a good looking, debonair, suave movie star that exudes coolness as effortlessly as most of us breathe, but it is time for Hollywood to realize that he is not a box office star. The only time Clooney does well at the box office is when he is standing next to Brad Pitt playing Danny Ocean or his film generates Oscar buzz, like last year’s Up in the Air (which still only opened in wide release with $11.3M). His latest film, The American, about an assassin who takes on one final job has neither of these things going for it. The film actually opens on Wednesday giving it a 5 day weekend launch into Sunday, but it’s really a 6 day opening weekend when Labor Day is factored into the mix. Wednesday openings are generally used to get a step up on the competition, but this tactic only truly works with big screen blockbusters like Transformers and Twilight. The American is geared towards a more mature crowd and they don’t go to the movies until the work week has ended. Unfortunately for Clooney, the audience this film is after pays attention to movie critics and so far The American has generated mixed reviews at best.   The film is also being mismarketed as an action thriller when in reality; it is a slow paced drama. Look for The American to open small with under $2M on Wednesday and go on to shoot up about $11M over the three day weekend period. It should make about $13M over the 4 day weekend and wind up with a 6 day total of $17M. That wasn’t too confusing, was it?

The last new film for the weekend is Going the Distance, a rom-com about the trials and tribulations surrounding a long distance romance. Although stars Drew Barrymore and Justin Long are (or are not, who knows?) dating, based on the trailer, I don’t think the two share a great chemistry on screen. They also don’t have any real muscle at the box office. It has been quite a few years since Barrymore successfully opened a film and Long has yet to achieve this at all as a lead actor. Here’s a look at how a few of Barrymore’s last leading roles performed at the box office.

 

She hasn’t had a big opening since 2004’s 50 First Dates and that was because of Adam Sandler. Let’s face it; Justin Long is no Adam Sandler. Going the Distance does have two things going for it that would cause it to breakout and score an opening weekend in the high teens, but I’m not too optimistic. First the marketplace is seriously devoid of anything resembling a romantic comedy right now, so it could serve as a popular choice for the date crowd. The second is that the trailers wisely showcase current SNL “it” boy Jason Sudeikis and Charlie Day, star of FX’s It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia. On the downside, the film carries an R-rating which will keep the teenage girls away, lousy reviews and a poor marketing campaign.  Distance was originally supposed to open last weekend, but some brilliant (sarcasm) executive decided the film may open better a week later. A week later!? A week later!? What possible difference could that make? Believe me when I tell you, none at all. Look for Going the Distance to collect $8M Friday through Sunday and take in $10M over 4 days.

To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 

Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend.