Search Blogs

 


Sep 29

Written by: Bill Bonfanti
9/29/2010 4:16 PM 

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF OCTOBER 1-3
Three new films kick off the month of October; Oscar hopeful, The Social Network, the true (?) tale of Facebook founder, Mark Zuckerberg, vampire remake, Let Me In and long on the shelf, Case 39 starring Renee Zellwegger and Bradley Cooper. The Social Network is riding a wave of terrific buzz and will certainly be #1 this weekend, but how many friends will it actually make? Take a look.
The Social Network boasts a high pedigree and if it is as terrific as its excellent trailer (perhaps the best of the year) suggests, the film could ride Oscar buzz into December.  Network is directed by highly respected filmmaker David Fincher (Fight Club, Benjamin Button) and written by Aaron Sorkin (A Few Good Men, The West Wing). Current indie “it” boy, Jesse Eisenberg (Zombieland, The Squid and the Whale) stars as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and is joined by Justin Timberlake (do I really need to tell you who he is?) and Andrew Garfield (the new Spider-Man). Zuckerberg has already publically disavowed the film, stating that it is an inaccurate account of the events that transpired and that the character based on him is too whiny. I don’t know, that sounds pretty whiny to me. Will any of this effect the box office? Definitely not. As they say, any press is good press. The only thing that will truly determine whether the film is a success or not, is whether it is actually good or not and based on the early reviews, Network is fabulous. With Fincher at the wheel directing from Sorkin’s script, chances are, Network is a solid movie that will in fact be remembered come award season and studio, Columbia, has a hit on its hands. Look for The Social Network to friend about $22M on its opening weekend and display great legs as positive buzz spreads. The film should make it to about $100M by the end of its run.
Let Me In is a remake of Swedish film, Let the Right One In, which itself is based on the best-selling Swedish novel of the same name.   The film is about a 12 year old boy who has no friends and is constantly bullied by his peers. He soon meets a young girl who befriends him, who also happens to be a vampire. The two bond as she teaches him to stand up for himself. The trailer for the film emphasizes the vampire, but the truth is Let Me In is more of a coming of age love story wrapped in a supernatural shell. The original Swedish film is held in high regard by many a fanboy, so the target audience will be difficult to impress. They’ve already been complaining all over message boards that this remake is unnecessary, so if they don’t embrace this film, its box office chances are tepid at best. 
That being said, Let Me In really doesn’t have all that much potential at the box office, with or without its diehard fans. The cast, although solid, including Richard Jenkins (The Visitor), Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Road) and Chloe Moretz (Kick-Ass), lacks in star power. The studio is attempting to interest audiences by emphasizing this film is from the director of Cloverfield (Matt Reeves) but no one cares who directed that movie. The only reason that film did well is because it was produced by J.J. Abrams (Lost, Star Trek) who is on his way to becoming the next Spielberg. 
The studio behind Let Me In, Overture Films, is clearly trying to tap into the current vampire craze epitomized by the Twilight franchise and HBO’s True Blood and will fail at doing so. Executives have to realize that those properties aren’t popular because of vampires; girls (and women) are only interested because of the hot, shirtless guys on screen who smack of danger and intrigue. It's the very same reason that nice guys finish last in high school (with the ladies) and often wind up taking their homely cousins to the prom. Look for Let Me In to open with about $6.5M and for it to collect about $20M before it disappears from theatres. 
Now on to the strange case of Case 39. I say strange because I can’t understand how a movie that has sat on the shelf for 3 years is now opening in wide release. Limited release maybe, but wide? Seems awfully weird. Case 39 stars Renee Zellwegger and Bradley Cooper and is a horror movie of sorts. The marketing has been weak and my guess is that most moviegoers don’t even know about it. Look for Case 39 to make about $5M this weekend and disappear from theatres quickly. 
To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below. 
Be sure and come back Monday for the results and follow me on Twitter for box office updates throughout the weekend. 
RANK
TITLE
BILL’S PREDICTION
1
The Social Network
$22M New
2
The Town
$10.1M -35%
3
Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
$9.9M -48%
4
Legend of the Guardians
$9.7M -40%
5
Let Me In
$6.5M New
6
Easy A
$6.4M -40%
7
You Again
$5.1M -40%
8
Case 39
$5M New
9
Devil
$3.6M -46%
10
Alpha and Omega
$2.9M -38%

Tags:

Your name:
Your email:
(Optional) Email used only to show Gravatar.
Your website:
Title:
Comment:
Add Comment   Cancel 

About FilmGo Contact Us Privacy Policy © Copyright 2011 545 Productions. All rights reserved.