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Oct 30

Written by: Bill Bonfanti
10/30/2008 1:25 PM 

Halloween weekend at the movies features 2 new releases and 2 films expanding from limited to nationwide release. First up is Kevin Smith’s latest raunchy comedy, Zack and Miri Make a Porno. Kevin Smith’s movies don’t generally light the box office on fire, but Zack and Miri is poised to perform better than his last films, thanks to the star power of current comedy champ, Seth Rogen. Rogen has anchored three hit comedies in the past two years (Knocked Up, Superbad and Pineapple Express) and audiences aren’t even close to sick of him yet. Zack and Miri should gross about $11M this weekend, which is a solid start, but not enough (in my opinion) to knock current box office champ, High School Musical 3, out of the top spot. HSM3 will surely suffer a steep decline in its second outing. Look for a drop of 65%, giving HSM3 another $15M to add to its gross and another week on top of the charts. The other new movie this weekend is PG-13 frightener, The Haunting of Molly Hartley. The film has no real star power, but because of its PG-13 rating, should perform pretty well with teenagers looking for a scare on Halloween weekend. Molly Hartley should gross about $6M this weekend.
Two films expand from limited to nationwide release this weekend; The Clint Eastwood directed drama, Changeling, and director Guy Ritchie’s latest, RockNRollaChangeling bowed last week in 15 theatres and it will expand its reach to over 1800 this weekend. Changeling has solid star power with Angelina Jolie in front of the camera, and Clint Eastwood behind it, but the bleak subject matter (Jolie’s son is kidnapped) and mixed reviews don’t bode well, for what should be an Oscar caliber flick. Look for Changeling to gross around $9M this Halloween. Guy Ritchie’s RockNRolla has been out for 3 weeks in limited release and each weekend the gross has dropped. This is a bad omen for this movie and its chances of box office gold are slim at best. Expanding to just over 800 theatres, RockNRolla will gross about $2M this weekend and not even make the top 10. To see the rest of my predictions, see the chart below.
RANK
TITLE
BILL’S PREDICTION
1
High School Musical 3: Senior Year
$15M -65%
2
Zack and Miri Make a Porno
$11M
3
Saw V
$10.5M -65%
4
Changeling
$9M
5
The Haunting of Molly Hartley
$6M
6
Beverly Hills Chihuahua
$4.5M -35%
7
Max Payne
$3.8M -50%
8
Pride & Glory
$3.75M -40%
9
Eagle Eye
$3.5M -30%
10
The Secret Lives of Bees
$3.3M -45%

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