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Nov
20
Written by:
Bill Bonfanti
11/20/2008 4:25 PM
This is sure to be a huge weekend at the multiplexes as the big screen adaptation of Stephanie Meyer’s best-selling vampire novel, Twilight, is set to take a nice bite out of the box office and Disney unleashes its new animated canine comedy, Bolt. Holdovers, Quantum of Solace and Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa are also set to perform well to make this a big box office weekend indeed. The top 4 films alone should have a total gross in the neighborhood of $160M.
Twilight is sure to be #1 with its rabid fan base in a full frenzy for this movie. Advance ticket sales have been through the roof and reviews have been decent. Most people in the industry are comparing the box office chances of Twilight to the success of the Harry Potter movies. I for one think this comparison is weak at best. There is nothing similar about these franchises other than the fact that they started as hit novels. The sales for the books aren’t even close. Twilight sold about 10% of what Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone sold. This is not to say that Twilight isn’t going to rake in the bucks this weekend, I’m just saying the comparison is poor. The Harry Potter films normally open in the $90M range, but I think that most people who rush out to see a Potter film on its opening weekend have also read the novels. I don’t think that will be the case with Twilight. The fans of the novel tend to be teenage girls and their mothers, but due to the brilliant marketing campaign that highlights the action, not just the romance, teenage boys will be standing in line for this one as well. Twilight will open in the neighborhood of $65M.
Disney is set to release its third big hit in a row, the animated comedy Bolt starring the voice talents of John Travolta and teen sensation, Miley Cyrus. Bolt is the story of the canine action star of a hit TV show who doesn’t realize that his life is one big lie until he escapes the set and winds up in NYC. It’s not until he is in NYC that he realizes that he doesn’t have superpowers and is just a normal dog. It’s sort of like The Truman Show starring a dog. Generally hit animated films that are not sequels debut in the neighborhood of $35M-$40M. Bolt should perform the same, due to the star power of its voice cast, the heavy marketing campaign and solid reviews. Look for Bolt to bolt away with $38M this weekend.
James Bond will continue his assault on multiplexes as Quantum of Solace, enters its second weekend. Last weekend saw Quantum sail past all other James Bond flicks with the best weekend take ($70.4M) in the franchise’s history. It should be in for a fairly steep drop though as reviews haven’t been as kind as they were to 2006’s Casino Royale, Daniel Craig’s first outing as the super spy. I would expect Quantum of Solace to gross a still impressive $28M in its second outing, down 60%. The crazy zoo animals from Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, enter their third frame with major competition from super-pup Bolt. Look for Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa to drop 50% with a final gross of $17.5M for the frame. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.
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RANK
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TITLE
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BILL’S PREDICTION
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1
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Twilight
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$65M
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2
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Bolt
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$38M
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3
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Quantum of Solace
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$28M -60%
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4
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Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa
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$17.5M -50%
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5
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Role Models
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$7.3M -35%
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6
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Changeling
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7
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High School Musical 3: Senior Year
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$2.3M -60%
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8
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The Secret Life of Bees
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$1.7M -30%
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9
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Zack and Miri Make a Porno
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$1.5M -50%
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10
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Soul Men
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$1.1M -50%
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1 comment(s) so far...
Re: Predictions for the weekend of November 21-23
I went and saw Oliver Stone's "W." last week. It was quite good and exceeded my expectations. The film shows more depth to George W. than we've seen in the past eight years. It focuses mostly on the events leading up to the Iraq invasion interspersed with scenes of W's life from college and through his adult years. Major father issues and selfworth issues are explored and have helped to form our 43rd President. We see how a crass, reckless, drinking adolescent fails in job after job and career after career given to him because of family connections (even trying to manage the Texas Rangers because of his love of baseball). Then becoming a born again Christian and an epiphany from God that he is destined to become President. Only in America, right?
The movie had many laugh out loud moments and I got to experience again some of W's funniest lines in public. "We have to ask ourselves: is our children learning?"
But even funnier (and scarier at times) are the private, inside scenes that Stone shows us. Albeit this is only speculation- Oliver Stone was not in the Oval Office as they planned the war - it has a very real feel to it, and the actors felt very true to their real life counterparts. Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Condeleeza Rice, George H. W. Bush...all the players are here. Richard Dreyfuss does an amazing Dick Cheney. Just his interactions with Josh Brolin's W alone make this film worth seeing.
"Okay Vice, I get it, nucular war, but why are you telling me this over lunch?"
By bzois9 on
11/21/2008 11:08 PM
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