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Dec 8

Written by: Bill Bonfanti
12/8/2011 12:25 PM 

BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF DECEMBER 9-11
There are two new films opening in wide release this weekend:  New Line Cinema once again tries to capture holiday magic with their star-studded follow-up to last year’s Valentine’s Day, New Year’s Eve and Jonah Hill stars in R-rated comedy The Sitter from 20th Century Fox. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate a dismal $77.7 million over the weekend, down about 4.8% from last year when both The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader from 20th Century Fox and Sony’s The Tourist led the overall Top 10 to a total of $81.6 million. The box office should rebound nicely with potential blockbuster sequels Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows and Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked opening next weekend. 
After successfully milking the holiday for lovers with last year’s star-studded rom-com Valentine’s Day, director Garry Marshall is back with another huge cast of all-stars with New Year’s Eve from New Line Cinema. Next year prepare yourself for famous people falling in love while trick or treating in Marshall’s follow-up film Halloween. Just kidding, but if PG-13 New Year’s Eve even comes close to matching Valentine’s Day’s success at the box office you can expect a film titled Fourth of July or Thanksgiving or Arbor Day to arrive in theatres in about a year or so. 
Aside from both being named after a holiday and having a huge cast, both of which are the selling points of these films, there are a few differences between Valentine’s Day and New Year’s Eve that will keep the latter film from opening as big as the former. Valentine’s Day opened on the perfect weekend that included both the Valentine’s Day and President’s Day holidays. This allowed for the film to open on a four day weekend with V-day leading into a day off for most people on Monday. This permitted the film to effectively draw in three nights of date traffic versus the two that New Year’s Eve will have. V-day is also the biggest date night of the year and a large part of that experience involves going to see a romantic comedy for many couples. The fact that New Year’s Eve is not opening on the actual holiday will lead it have a much smaller opening than its predecessor but should allow for stronger legs as the end of the year draws closer. After opening with a huge $56.3 million, Valentine’s Day dropped an alarming 70% in its second frame and limped its way to a $110.5 million total. While New Year’s Eve will likely open with less than half of Valentine’s Day’s opening, it should experience a slim decline of about 40% or less next weekend with even smaller drop-off’s over the holiday weekends. 
One factor that may truly upset New Year’s Eve’s box office potential is the fact that it is following Valentine’s Day; although the film was a hit at the box office, the reaction from audiences to the film was lukewarm at best which may cause some moviegoers to skip this holiday themed rom-com despite all the big celebrities involved. The film is receiving a thrashing from critics and this may help convince those on the fence to skip this celebration. Expect New Year’s Eve to party its way to about $24 million this weekend. 
20th Century Fox’s The Sitter starring Jonah Hill is an R-rated comedy about a misfit babysitter who has a night of wild adventures with three kids in tow. Although babysitter comedies are usually considered family fare, The Sitter will be trying to match the success of Bad Santa or this summer’s Bad Teacher, but will likely fall way short of the mark. Instead the film will probably perform more like another raunchy, R-rated take on a family premise, this summer’s body switching comedy bomb, The Change-Up.   The Sitter will have a bit of a built in fanbase from star Jonah Hill but that won’t be enough to make it into a four quadrant hit. This film is for young men and that is about it.
Jonah Hill has had his share of successful comedies (Superbad, Get Him to the Greek) and has even matured as an actor over the last few years (Cyrus, Moneyball) but he has yet to carry a film on his own. The Sitter isn’t really even a good test of the actor’s viability at this point as this film was filmed before the actor shed an amazing amount of weight. The new, thinner Jonah Hill 2.0 is in the process of redefining himself with upcoming roles in action comedy reboot, 21 Jump Street and Neighborhood Watch co-starring Vince Vaughn and Ben Stiller. 
R-rated comedies were all the rage this summer but by August that fad had already passed with underperforming comedies such as The Change-Up and 30 Minutes or Less occupying theatres. The one thing The Sitter does have going for it is a lack of any major comedy competition in the marketplace. Of course, the last few comedies to be released (Harold and Kumar 3D, Tower Heist, etc.) all fell below expectations and The Sitter will likely continue that trend. The Sitter will get paid about $13 million this weekend. 
To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.
Weekend Release Schedule, 2011 vs. 2010
All debuting titles for the weekend are in red
DECEMBER 9-11 2011
RANK
TITLE
GENRE
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
FILMGO’S PREDICTION
1
New Year’s Eve
Romantic Comedy
New Line Cinema
$24.0M
New
2
The Sitter
Comedy
20th Century Fox
$13.0M
New
3
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1
Horror/Romance
Summit Entertainment
$8.7M
-47%
4
The Muppets
Family Comedy
Disney
$6.9M
-38%
5
Hugo
Adventure
Paramount
$6.2M
-18%
6
Arthur Christmas
Animated Adventure
Sony
$5.3M
-28%
7
The Descendants
Drama
Fox Searchlight
$4.3M
-10%
8
Jack and Jill
Comedy
Sony
$3.6M
-33%
9
Happy Feet Two
Animated Adventure
Warner Bros.
$3.1M
-48%
10
Tower Heist
Comedy
Universal
$2.6M
-35%
TOTAL $77.7M
DECEMBER 10-12 2010
RANK
TITLE
GENRE
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
WEEKEND GROSS
1
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
Adventure
20th Century Fox
$24.0M
New
2
The Tourist
Thriller/Suspense
Sony
$16.5M
New
3
Tangled
Animated Adventure
Disney
$14.3M
-34%
4
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
Adventure
Warner Bros.
$8.5M
-50%
5
Unstoppable
Action
20th Century Fox
$3.7M
-38%
6
Black Swan
Thriller/Suspense
Fox Searchlight
$3.3M
+129%
7
Burlesque
Musical/Drama
Sony
$3.2M
-48%
8
Love & Other Drugs
Drama
20th Century Fox
$3.0M
-47%
9
Due Date
Comedy
Warner Bros.
$2.6M
-38%
10
MegaMind
Animated Adventure
Paramount
$2.5M
-49%
                                                                                                                                                TOTAL $81.6M
Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be down about 4.8% from 2010. 

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By bruce-leo on   12/16/2011 8:55 PM

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