BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF DECEMBER 16-18
There are two new films opening in wide release this weekend: Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law take on a new case in adventure sequel Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows from Warner Bros. and Alvin and his cuddly entourage are marooned on an island in family threequel Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked from 20th Century Fox. In addition to the new films above, Paramount is releasing Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol on 400 IMAX screens nationwide and also expanding their Oscar hopeful, Young Adult starring Charlize Theron into approximately 1000 theatres. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate a robust $145 million over the weekend, up about 13.8% from last year when both Tron: Legacy from Disney and Yogi Bear from Warner Bros. led the overall Top 10 to a total of $124.9 million.
Robert Downey Jr. and Jude Law are back once again as Holmes and Watson in director Guy Ritchie’s PG-13 rated adventure sequel Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. The first film which opened on Christmas Day, 2009, was a sizable hit, opening with $62.3 million and powered its way to a domestic total of $209 million. A sequel was quickly put into production and suddenly Downey went from has-been to an actor with two franchises under his belt. Usually a sequel to a hit film will open larger than its predecessor, but that may not happen for A Game of Shadows for a few reasons.
The first film had the blessing of opening on a Christmas Day that fell on a Friday, making the weekend a hyper-charged box office frame. Avatar was in its second weekend and generally a huge hit will boast the grosses of the films surrounding it. Sherlock Holmes will enjoy no such luxuries this time around. In fact, the weekend for Christmas is not the best time to open a film. Many films over the last few years (Tron: Legacy, Yogi Bear, Avatar) opened the weekend before the holiday and saw some of their opening potential squandered because many people are too busy preparing for festivities to go see a movie. Although the first film was an indisputable box office hit, much of that was fueled by goodwill for Downey after Iron Man. Many ticket buyers were unsatisfied with the film (although many loved it) and will likely not return for the sequel despite Downey’s star power. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows should have had the action audience all to itself, but due to Paramount’s decision to open Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol a few days early on IMAX screens nationwide, it now has some major competition. The Tom Cruise sequel could very well pull away about $15 million of Sherlock Holmes opening potential.
On the plus side for the film, the reviews have been mostly positive, although most critics agree that it is not as good as the first. The biggest thing the film has going for it is it will have two holiday weekends to pack in audiences after its initial opening weekend. On a side note, it is interesting to note that the first Sherlock Holmes opened opposite the last Alvin and the Chipmunks movie. Not that there will be any audience overlap for these films, but it is an interesting factoid. Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows will likely uncover about $58 million this weekend.
20th Century Fox’s G-rated comedy threequel Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked finds the fuzzy, little entertainers marooned on an island. The last two Chipmunk movies performed extremely well at the box office with the films appealing to both young boys and young girls equally. Parents also know what to expect from the brand and know that it is a safe choice for their families, which should help Chipwrecked perform nearly as well as the other films. The first film opened on this same weekend four years ago and sang its way to a robust opening of $44.3 million. The film held on very well through the holidays and found its way to an overall total of $217.3 million. The next film opened on a Wednesday, two days before Christmas and collected a whopping $75.6 million over five days ($48.9 million over Friday to Sunday) and went on to match the gross of the original. Although the opening weekend will likely not be as strong, for a couple of reasons, Chipwrecked is going to be another big hit for Alvin and his pals.
The two biggest challenges that Chipwrecked faces this weekend is that it is opening on a weekend when many families are busy and has way more competition than the other two films had. Although most of the family films currently crowding multiplexes (The Muppets, Arthur Christmas, Hugo) have been out for four weeks or more, they will still steal away about $15 million in potential tickets sales from the rock star rodents. On the plus side, because they are so cute and cuddly, the Chipmunks appeal to toddlers and young teens and although some fans of the original film have grown up, there is certainly enough new young fans to take their place. In fact, the potential audience for the film may actually have grown in the four years since the original. There are sure to be many 15 or 16 year olds who will see this just because they enjoyed the first two films. Regardless of whether it opens as well as the past two films, Chipwrecked will reap the benefit of holiday traffic for the next few weekends and post solid mid-week numbers while kids are on vacation from school. Expect Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked to sail off with about $36 million this weekend.
To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.
Weekend Release Schedule, 2011 vs. 2010
All debuting titles for the weekend are in red.
DECEMBER 16-18 2011
|
RANK
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
|
FILMGO’S PREDICTION
|
|
1
|
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
|
Adventure
|
Warner Bros.
|
$58.0M
New
|
|
2
|
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
|
Comedy
|
20th Century Fox
|
$36.0M
New
|
|
3
|
Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol
|
Action
|
Paramount
|
$15.0M
New
|
|
4
|
New Year’s Eve
|
Romantic Comedy
|
New Line Cinema
|
$7.0M
-46%
|
|
5
|
Young Adult
|
Comedy/Drama
|
Paramount
|
$6.5M
+1997%
|
|
6
|
Arthur Christmas
|
Animated Adventure
|
Sony
|
$4.9M
-25%
|
|
7
|
The Sitter
|
Comedy
|
20th Century Fox
|
$4.8M
-52%
|
|
8
|
The Muppets
|
Family Comedy
|
Disney
|
$4.4M
-37%
|
|
9
|
Hugo
|
Adventure
|
Paramount
|
$4.3M
-30%
|
|
10
|
The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1
|
Horror/Romance
|
Summit Entertainment
|
$4.1M
-47%
|
TOTAL $145.0M
DECEMBER 17-19 2010
|
RANK
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
|
WEEKEND GROSS
|
|
1
|
Tron: Legacy
|
Adventure
|
Disney
|
$4.0M
New
|
|
2
|
Yogi Bear
|
Comedy
|
Warner Bros.
|
$16.4M
New
|
|
3
|
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
|
Adventure
|
20th Century Fox
|
$12.4M
-48%
|
|
4
|
The Fighter
|
Drama
|
Paramount
|
$12.1M
+3945%
|
|
5
|
Tangled
|
Animated Adventure
|
Disney
|
$8.8M
-39%
|
|
6
|
The Tourist
|
Thriller/Suspense
|
Sony
|
48.5M
-45%
|
|
7
|
Black Swan
|
Thriller/Suspense
|
Fox Searchlight
|
$8.4M
+154%
|
|
8
|
How Do You Know
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Sony
|
$7.5M
New
|
|
9
|
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
|
Adventure
|
Warner Bros.
|
$5.0M
-41%
|
|
10
|
Unstoppable
|
Action
|
20th Century Fox
|
$1.8M
-50%
|
TOTAL $124.9M
Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be up about 13.9% from 2010.