BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF DECEMBER 23-25
There are quite a few new films opening in wide release between Wednesday, December 21st and Sunday, December 25th. On the 21st three new films open in wide release: Paramount’s Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol expands wide after debuting on 425 IMAX screens on the 16th, based on the best-selling book series Sony unveils The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo and after a successful launch internationally Paramount releases animated journey film The Adventures of Tintin directed by Steven Spielberg. On Friday the 23rd, 20th Century Fox invites you to director Cameron Crowe’s feel-good family film We Bought a Zoo starring Matt Damon. Finally on Christmas Day, DreamWorks releases Oscar hopeful War Horse from director Steven Spielberg and Summit Entertainment’s alien invasion flick The Darkest Hour assaults theatres. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate about $126.7 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the weekend, up about 2% from last year when both Little Fockers from Universal and True Grit from Paramountled the overall Top 10 to a total of $124.2 million.
Paramount’s PG-13 rated sequel, Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol expands nationwide on Wednesday after successfully opening with $12.8 million on only 425 IMAX screens last weekend. The fourth go-around for Ethan Hunt (Tom Cruise) has received excellent reviews from critics and terrific word of mouth from those who saw it last weekend, giving the sequel spy-caper the edge to win the weekend. Once the biggest movie star on the planet, Tom Cruise’s career has taken a downturn over the last few years, but this latest Ethan Hunt adventure returns the star to form and may lead into a box office resurgence for the actor.
The first Mission: Impossible opened in May of 1996 with a very strong $45.4 million and went on to collect $181 million. Mission: Impossible 2 opened four years later with $57.8 million and went on to best the first films total box office with $215.4 million. Although the second film was the highest grosser for the series, it wasn’t well-received by audiences and largely grossed that amount based on the strengths of the first film and Cruise’s star power. Six years later, Cruise returned once again in Mission: Impossible III to weaker results. The third film opened with $47.7 million and went on to collect $133.5 million. Although widely considered to be a better film than M: I 2, the third film wasn’t as successful for a few reasons. First, the second film really wasn’t very good and convinced many moviegoers to skip the third outing for super-spy Ethan Hunt. The biggest factor in M: I 3’s performance was that it came out during the Tom Cruise backlash due to his Scientology beliefs. The J.J. Abram’s directed film did gain fans from home viewings and has earned Ghost Protocol some much needed goodwill.
Directed by Brad Bird (The Incredibles) and produced under the steady hand of Abrams, Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol is set to perform in a time when the box office slump has many speculating that audiences are sick of sequels. The truth is, audiences will come out if they feel they are getting their money’s worth and only avoid the sequels that aren’t as good as their predecessors. Expect Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol to shoot up about $31 million over Friday to Sunday for a total of $46 million over the four day weekend. The Tom Cruise action epic should collect about $73 million from Wednesday to Monday.
Based on the best-selling novel, Sony releases R-rated The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo from well-respected director David Fincher. The Swedish novel has already been adapted as a foreign film (with two sequels) and between the prior films and the novels, the film enters a crowded marketplace with very high awareness. The American version stars Daniel Craig and Rooney Mara (The Social Network) and it has been earning positive reviews from critics. Because of its devout fanbase, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo will likely be fairly front-loaded earning a significant amount of its money on Wednesday (including Tuesday night showings) and will likely trail off into the holiday weekend. However, once the holiday passes and word of mouth settles in, expect more adult audiences to head out to theatres over the next few weekends to check the film out.
Director Fincher has a strong fanbase who will also check out the film based on his reputation as a filmmaker. Star power is questionable however. Rooney Mara is too new to the silver screen for any major comparisons and Craig has yet to have a hit film outside of the Bond franchise. His last two films, Cowboys & Aliens and Dream House faltered at the box office indicating that he may not be the star that Hollywood thinks he is. Look for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo to collect about $37 million over the four day holiday weekend ($26 million from Friday to Sunday). The film should collect a total of about $60 million over its first six days of release.
PG rated The Adventures of Tintin from Paramount is the first of two Steven Spielberg directed films to open this week. The other is DreamWorks’ War Horse, galloping into theatres on Christmas Day. The film based on the popular graphic novel is animated in the style of The Polar Express and Disney’s A Christmas Carol. The character is extremely popular overseas and the film has already earned $240 million worldwide. The question is whether the film’s success will carry over to the States. While the film will likely do fairly well here on the strength of Spielberg’s name alone, it is doubtful the film will be a huge hit in North America for a few reasons.
The character isn’t that popular outside of Europe. The animated look of the film also makes it look primarily like a kids flick and may not entice teenage boys and young men that this is a film for them. These same young men will likely be distracted by Paramount’s own Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol and Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows. Truthfully, the film looks like a good old fashioned Indiana Jones type adventure with Pee Wee Herman taking over for Harrison Ford. The Adventures of Tintin is also entering a crowded marketplace with plenty of options for both young men and family audiences. Another detriment is that another Spielberg film, War Horse is opening on Christmas Day and will likely divide the filmmaker’s huge fanbase. The film is being shown in 3D which has also become more of a negative than a positive at this point. Expect The Adventures of Tintin to uncover about $19 million ($12.5 million Friday to Sunday) over the holiday frame. Look for Tintin to earn a total of about $30 million over its first six days of release.
20th Century Fox’s PG-rated family We Bought a Zoo from writer/director Cameron Crowe (Jerry Maguire, Almost Famous) stars Matt Damon as a father who moves his young family to the countryside to renovate and re-open a zoo. This is a step in a lighter direction for Damon whose last few films include The Adjustment Bureau, Hereafter and Contagion. Damon is lent support in the form of Scarlet Johansson, Thomas Haden Church and of course, all of the lovable critters in the zoo.
Crowe is not a very prolific filmmaker, often taking years in between projects. This is his first film since 2005 box office disaster Elizabethtown $10.6 million opening/$26.9 million total) starring Orlando Bloom. Crowe, a critical darling, has only had two big box office hits to his credit; 1996’s Jerry Maguire ($17.1 million opening/$154 million total) and 2001’s Vanilla Sky ($25 million opening/$100.6 million total). Both of these films were released at the height of Tom Cruise’s star power while all of Crowe’s other projects starred less viable actors such as Bloom, Kate Hudson or John Cusack, suggesting that the success of his films rest solely on the shoulders of whomever he casts as his lead. Working with Matt Damon this time around should guarantee the third biggest hit of his career, even though the actor is far from a sure-thing at the box office. Playing a devoted single father in a family friendly romantic comedy should work out quite well for Damon and draw in plenty of moms with their kids in tow. Look for We Bought a Zoo to earn about $13 million between Friday and Sunday and a solid $20.5 million over four days.
DreamWorks enters the Oscar race with PG-13 rated warfare drama War Horse from director Steven Spielberg. Opening on Christmas Day, War Horse is about a young man named Albert (newcomer Jeremy Irvine) who enlists his services during World War I after his beloved horse, Joey, is sold to the cavalry. As Albert fights his way through Europe, he is reunited once again with his stead and they make their way through the war ravaged continent. The film is based on the children’s novel and stage adaption of the same name and stars a cast of relatively unknown British and German actors, leaving the box office potential resting on Spielberg’s name alone.
One of the most celebrated directors of all time, Spielberg has spent his career alternating between escapist blockbusters (Jurassic Park, Indiana Jones, this weekend’s Tintin) and more serious fare (Schindler’s List, Saving Private Ryan, Amistad). Either way, his films tend to do really well at the box office and War Horse should be a solid hit for the filmmaker. The reviews have been mostly positive which should help convince moviegoers to give the film a chance. The biggest hurdle War Horse faces is Spielberg’s other new film, The Adventures of Tintin, which will likely divide his fanbase. I think War Horse will have a strong Christmas Day with about $5 million and will trot off with about $12.5 million over two days. Look for the film to play really well over the next few weeks (due to holiday traffic) and to have long legs if it becomes a serious awards contender.
After being shuffled around the release schedule a few times, Summit Entertainment finally releases its PG-13 rated alien invasion flick The Darkest Hour on Christmas Day. Starring Emile Hirsch, Olivia Thirlby and Max Minghella, The Darkest Hour is about a group of young adults stuck in Moscow who lead the charge against an alien race that has invaded Earth for its power supply. In other words, it has the same plot as every other alien invasion movie.
The film has many problems heading into the holiday weekend and will likely make very little impact at the box office. The actors have no pull at the box office leaving the films box office potential resting on the plot and special effects, neither of which are special. The film will largely only appeal to younger men who will likely be distracted by Cruise, Downey or Spielberg this weekend. The film is also in 3D and with the current backlash of all things in the third dimension, this is a huge deficit. Expect The Darkest Hour to beam up about $5 million over two days.
To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.
Weekend Release Schedule, 2011 vs. 2010
All debuting titles for the weekend are in red.
DECEMBER 23-25 2011
|
RANK
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
|
FILMGO’S PREDICTION
|
|
1
|
Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol
|
Action
|
Paramount
|
$31M (Fri-Sun)
$46M (Fri-Mon)
$73M (Wed-Mon)
|
|
2
|
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
|
Suspense/Thriller
|
Sony
|
$26M (Fri-Sun)
$37M (Fri-Mon)
$60M (Wed-Mon)
|
|
3
|
Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
|
Adventure
|
Warner Bros.
|
$17.8M
-55%
|
|
4
|
We Bought a Zoo
|
Comedy/Drama
|
20th Century Fox
|
$13M (Fri-Sun)
$20.5M (Fri-Mon)
|
|
5
|
The Adventures of Tintin
|
Adventure
|
Paramount
|
$12.5M (Fri-Sun)
$19M (Fri-Mon)
$30M (Wed-Mon)
|
|
6
|
Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
|
Comedy
|
20th Century Fox
|
$11.6M
-50%
|
|
7
|
War Horse
|
Drama
|
DreamWorks
|
$5M (Sunday)
$12.5M (Sun-Mon)
|
|
8
|
New Year’s Eve
|
Romantic Comedy
|
New Line Cinema
|
$4.4M
-40%
|
|
9
|
The Darkest Hour
|
Sci-fi
|
Summit Entertainment
|
$2.8M (Sunday)
$5M (Sun-Mon)
|
|
10
|
Young Adult
|
Comedy/Drama
|
Paramount
|
$2.6M
-25%
|
TOTAL $126.7M (Fri-Sun)
DECEMBER 24-26 2010
|
RANK
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
|
WEEKEND GROSS
|
|
1
|
Little Fockers
|
Comedy
|
Universal
|
$30.8M
New
|
|
2
|
True Grit
|
Western
|
Paramount
|
$24.8M
New
|
|
3
|
Tron: Legacy
|
Adventure
|
Disney
|
$19.2M
-57%
|
|
4
|
The Chronicles of Narnia: The Voyage of the Dawn Treader
|
Adventure
|
20th Century Fox
|
$9.5M
-23%
|
|
5
|
Yogi Bear
|
Comedy
|
Warner Bros.
|
$7.9M
-52%
|
|
6
|
The Fighter
|
Drama
|
Paramount
|
$7.6M
-38%
|
|
7
|
Tangled
|
Animated Adventure
|
Disney
|
$6.4M
-27%
|
|
8
|
Gulliver’s Travels
|
Family Comedy
|
20th Century Fox
|
$6.3M
New
|
|
9
|
Black Swan
|
Thriller/Suspense
|
Fox Searchlight
|
$6.3M
-25%
|
|
10
|
The Tourist
|
Thriller/Suspense
|
Sony
|
$5.4M
-37%
|
TOTAL $124.2M
Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be up about 2% from 2010.