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Jan
5
Written by:
Bill Bonfanti
1/5/2012 12:20 AM
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF JANUARY 6-8
There is only one film opening in wide release this weekend: Paramount releases this year’s obligatory exorcism film, The Devil Inside, yet another lost footage horror film that claims to be real. It is an inauspicious start to the New Year that will allow holdover films from the holiday’s the opportunity to pick up some lost ticket sales due to all the competition at the end of the year. That being said, there are many high profile films being released this year that will likely make 2012 a banner year at the box office. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate about $92.6 million over the weekend, up about 3.6% from last year when both True Grit from Paramount and Little Fockers from Universal led the overall Top 10 to a total of $89.3 million. Paramount’s R-rated lost footage horror film, The Devil Inside is yet another film in a long line of exorcism films. This one follows a young woman who gets involved with demon removal while traveling in Italy. The Devil Inside is filmed in a documentary style very much like 2010’s The Last Exorcism, a film that opened strong with $20.4 million but fizzled out quickly reaching a total gross of $41 million. The Devil Inside should perform in a similar fashion. Filmed on the cheap much like Paranormal Activity, the film should turn a tidy profit for Paramount even though it has no chance of reaching the heights of the Activity films.
The Devil Inside heads into this weekend with some positive and negative attributes. On the sunny side, the film is the only new film opening this weekend in wide release leaving zero competition from new films. The Devil Inside is also the first horror film to be released in quite a while and fright flick fans starved for new movies will likely give it a shot. The film should also benefit from a downright creepy trailer that may convince more casual horror films that this is a film worth seeing. On the negative side, The Devil Inside needs young men to come out and support it if it is to make a killing at the box office and this demographic has been increasingly difficult to lure into theatres over the past few months. Audiences also seem to be tiring of the lost footage horror genre as evidenced by the poor performance of The Weinstein Co.’s Apollo 18 ($8.7 million opening/$17.7 million total) this past September. Of course, shortly after that film was released, Paranormal Activity 3 opened to huge results, but those films have taken on a life of their own, becoming a Halloween tradition and can’t really be compared to The Devil Inside. Look for The Devil Inside to exorcise about $16 million this weekend.
To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.
Weekend Release Schedule, 2012 vs. 2011
All debuting titles for the weekend are in red.
JANUARY 6-8 2012
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RANK
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TITLE
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GENRE
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DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
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FILMGO’S PREDICTION
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1
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Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol
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Action
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Paramount
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$16.8M
-43%
|
|
2
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The Devil Inside
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Horror
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Paramount
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$16.0M
New
|
|
3
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Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
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Adventure
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Warner Bros.
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$11.1M
-47%
|
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4
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War Horse
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Drama
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DreamWorks
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$10.1M
-30%
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5
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Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked
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Comedy
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20th Century Fox
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$9.0M
-45%
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6
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The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
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Suspense/Thriller
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Sony
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$8.6M
-42%
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7
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We Bought a Zoo
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Comedy/Drama
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20th Century Fox
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$8.2M
-38%
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8
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The Adventures of Tintin
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Adventure
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Paramount
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$5.9M
-48%
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9
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Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
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Drama
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Focus Features
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$4.2M
+385%
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10
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The Descendants
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Drama
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Fox Searchlight
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$2.7M
-22%
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TOTAL $92.6M
JANUARY 7-9 2011
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RANK
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TITLE
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GENRE
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DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
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WEEKEND GROSS
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1
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True Grit
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Western
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Paramount
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$14.6M
-40%
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2
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Little Fockers
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Comedy
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Universal
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$13.5M
-48%
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3
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Season of the Witch
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Horror/Suspense
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Relativity Media
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$10.6M
New
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4
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Tron: Legacy
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Adventure
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Disney
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$10.1M
-46%
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5
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Black Swan
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Thriller/Suspense
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Fox Searchlight
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$8.1M
-9%
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6
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Country Strong
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Drama
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Sony
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$7.3M
+17550%
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7
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The Fighter
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Drama
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Paramount
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$7.0M
-30%
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8
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Yogi Bear
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Comedy
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Warner Bros.
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$6.6M
-46%
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9
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The King’s Speech
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Drama
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The Weinstein Co.
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$6.4M
-18%
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10
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Tangled
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Animated Adventure
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Disney
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$5.1M
-48%
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TOTAL $89.3M
Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be up about 3.6% from 2011.
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