Following the success of Disney’s The Lion King 3D, the Mouse House releases another classic from their vault in the third dimension; the timeless tale Beauty and the Beast. 1991’s animated musical is one of Disney’s most popular films and has a huge fanbase that gets replenished every year as new little princesses are born. Beauty and the Beast is the film that should benefit the most from the long holiday weekend. While the film does have a huge fanbase, it does not have the broad appeal of The Lion King and will likely not open as big as Simba’s rerelease. 

Disney has successfully rereleased its animated films in the past and Beauty and the Beast should continue the trend. Mom’s, who grew up watching the film, will be out in force this weekend with their daughters, guaranteeing a strong weekend, but will fathers and sons join them? Many of them will be distracted by football, leaving Beauty and the Beast to serve as counter-programming this weekend. Nonetheless, there will be plenty of boys in the audience. The film will also serve as a nice date night option for many young couples. The biggest factor working in favor for Beauty and the Beast this weekend is that it is a safe bet. Parents already know that it is a great film and may not mind opening their wallets so they can experience it on the big screen with their kids.  

On the negative side, many films are being rereleased this year in 3D (The Phantom Menace, Finding Nemo, Titanic) and audience backlash could kick in at any time. Audiences are already fed up with 3D conversions to begin with. Beauty and the Beast also has more competition for its core audience than The Lion King did. The latest Alvin and the Chipmunks, We Bought a Zoo, The Adventures of Tintin and to a lesser extent, War Horse will all serve as a distraction from Belle and friends. Expect Beauty and the Beast 3D to dance off with $17.5 million over Friday to Sunday for a four day total of $22.5 million. 

Universal’s R-rated action thriller Contraband stars Mark Wahlberg as a former smuggler who heads to Panama to score millions of dollars in counterfeit bills to protect his brother-in-law from a drug kingpin. Wahlberg has a fairly strong track record at the box office and he is given support in the form of Giovanni Ribisi and Kate Beckinsale, who stars in Underworld: Awakening, opening next weekend. While Ribisi is more a respected actor than box office titan, Beckinsale has a strong fanbase and should help Contraband’s potential box office. 

Wahlberg has built up an impressive film career, striking success as an action star, but more recently has expanded into hit comedies (Date Night, The Other Guys) and more serious Oscar fare (The Lovely Bones, The Fighter). This is his first action role since 2008’s mid-level hit Max Payne and as such, his fanbase of young men should support Contraband. The biggest hurdle Contraband will face this weekend is competition from holdover action sequels Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol and Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows.  While these films are entering their fourth and fifth weekends respectively, they should still steal away about $20 million collectively from Contraband’s potential box office this weekend. Although it is expected to have a steep drop from last weekend, The Devil Inside will also distract some urban audiences who otherwise may have been enticed by Wahlberg’s latest action flick. The male audience the film covets may also be distracted by NFL playoff games this weekend. The R-rating will also restrict some of Wahlberg’s teenage fans from buying a ticket as well.   Look for Contraband to shoot up about $16 million over Friday to Sunday for a four day total of $21 million.  

PG-13 musical comedy Joyful Noise from Warner Bros. stars Queen Latifah and Dolly Parton and could serve as smart counter-programming this weekend. The film is about two women who face off over the new direction their church choir group is heading in. Reviews have been mixed at best but the film should find an audience due to its stars. Queen Latifah has a nice fanbase and although Parton’s box office appeal may be questionable at this point, she is a bit of a legend with many life-long fans.  Joyful Noise may attract older women but will likely have a difficult time stretching out to other demographics. The film will also be competing with Beauty and the Beast 3D this weekend. I think Joyful Noise will sing its way to $11 million over Friday to Sunday for a four day total of $13.5 million. 

To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.

All debuting titles for the weekend are in red. 

Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be down about 5.1% from 2011.