Sony’s fourth chapter in the war between vampires and lycans (werewolves) Underworld: Awakening should easily be able to take the top spot this weekend. After only briefly appearing in the third outing, franchise star Kate Beckinsale returns as the lead in this outing. After a three year absence from the big screen, Beckinsale is experiencing a welcome return, co-starring in last weekend’s #1 film, Contraband, and depending on how well this weekend’s other new films perform, she may be able to boast that she stars in the top 2 films this weekend. Underworld: Awakening has a few advantages heading into the weekend.

On the positive side, the Underworld films have a solid fanbase that has stayed strong throughout the first three films. The last entry wasn’t as strong as the first two films collecting $45.8 million total, but in all fairness, that film was a prequel and didn’t star Beckinsale. Beckinsale’s return as hunter Selene should goose the grosses for this installment; much like the return of Vin Diesal did for the Fast & Furious franchise, albeit on a smaller scale. This is the first Underworld film to be in 3D which will also help. While 3D has lost its luster a bit, fans of the series will likely pony up the extra cash to see the world of vampires and lycans in the third dimension. This was the case with another female driven franchise, Resident Evil. The fourth film in that series was also in 3D and benefitted greatly, becoming the highest grossing installment in the series. Although there is some stiff competition from other action films, Underworld will likely have nothing to worry about. The core fanbase is showing up this weekend no matter what. Look for Underworld: Awakening to fight its way to about $27 million this weekend. 

20^th Century Fox’s PG-13 rated war epic Red Tails from producer George Lucas flies into theatres this weekend. The film is about the Tuskegee Airmen, a group of African-American fighter pilots that helped turn the tide of World War II. The film features a strong cast including Terrance Howard, Cuba Gooding Jr. and Nate Parker, but unfortunately none of them have any pull at the box office. Instead Red Tails will have to rely on its premise to attract viewers. George Lucas being attached as a producer of the film certainly can’t hurt, but it probably won’t have that much of a positive impact either. If this was a Lucas produced sci-fi or adventure movie, his name would likely attract more attention. 

Red Tails will likely cater to a more adult audience due to its World War II setting and it is doubtful that younger men will be as interested with all the other action oriented movies currently occupying theatres. Because the film is about the Tuskegee Airmen, the film should attract the attention of African-American men over the age of 35, but much of the male audience will be distracted by football this weekend and may cause Red Tails to crash and burn at the box office. Reviews haven’t been that great for the film and this may also cause the film to stall on the runway. On the positive side, the film has received an endorsement from popular filmmaker Tyler Perry which might result in some of his fans coming out to support the film. Red Tails will likely lift off with about $12.5 million this weekend. 

R-rated action thriller Haywire from Relativity Media stars Mixed Martial Arts superstar Gina Carano as a spy who is betrayed on a mission who seeks revenge. The film is directed by respected filmmaker Steven Soderbergh and also stars Michael Douglas, Channing Tatum, Antonio Banderas and Ewan McGregor. As impressive as the cast surrounding Carano is, they won’t help much at the box office, leaving the film’s box office chances resting on her shoulders. Will her fans support her in her first role? Will those unfamiliar with her skip the film altogether? Chances are, Haywire like many female driven revenge films before it (Colombiana, Hanna), will not make a huge dent at the box office. Director Soderbergh has a fairly passionate fanbase, but it is likely not big enough to make the film a commercial hit. 

Haywire has been receiving solid reviews from critics which may help a bit, but the film is truly at a disadvantage this weekend. The urban audience that this film needs to attract will be plenty distracted this weekend from Underworld, Contraband and all of the other holdover action films still in theatres. Expect Haywire to open poorly with about $6 million. 

After some moderate success in only 6 theatres, PG-13 drama Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close form both Paramount and Warner Bros. opens nationwide this weekend. The film stars Tom Hanks, Sandra Bullock and newcomer Thomas Horn. The film is about a nine-year old boy who searches New York City for the lock that matches a mysterious key left behind by his father, who died in the World Trade Center on 9/11. Films based around the events of 9/11 haven’t performed very well at the box office but the presence of stars Hanks and Bullock should give Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close a boost. The reviews have been very mixed for the film which will certainly not help its cause. The film will have to rely on adult audiences showing up, but they don’t normally rush out on the first weekend, leaving the film to rely on word of mouth over the next few weekends. Look for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close to open with about $12 million this weekend. 

To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.

All debuting titles for the weekend are in red. 

Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be up about 20.3% from 2011.