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Nov
24
Written by:
Bill Bonfanti
11/24/2008 2:46 PM

Twilight kicked major butt at the box office this weekend, grossing $70.6M, the fourth biggest November opening of all time. Twilight grossed $36M on Friday (including Thursday midnight showings), then fell 41% to $21M on Saturday, followed by another dip of 35% Sunday to gross $13.7M. As impressive as its total weekend gross is, the declines do not bode well for Twilights future at the box office. With much of the upfront demand out of the way, Twilight will most likely take a big tumble next weekend. The only chance of having legs at the box office is if teen girls come back for repeated showings, very much like they did for Titanic. However, Titanic was 10 years ago and moviegoers habits have changed drastically since then. These days’ movies generally don’t have a long run at the box office like they used to. I remember when I was a kid, seeing ads in the newspaper that said, Back to the Future, now in its 18th week. Movies today are lucky if they’re playing for 6 or 7 weeks.
Disney’s latest offering, animated comedy, Bolt, opened with $27M, way below my $38M forecast. Bolt’s opening was a bit of a disappointment as it opened lower than most animated hits that debut in November. However with strong reviews and the Thanksgiving holiday frame coming up and the kids home from school, Bolt should have a chance to up its box office performance. It is also important to note that Bolt opened right in line with Disney’s other big hit, Beverly Hills Chihuahua. Chihuahua opened with $29M and has grossed over $90M, and Bolt should perform about the same.
James Bond took a big hit this weekend as Quantum of Solace dropped nearly 60% to gross $27.4M. This brings its total to $109M, well within striking distance of predecessor Casino Royale which grossed a total of $167M, to become the highest grossing Bond film of all time. If Quantum does surpass Casino, it will be by a very small margin. My guess is that it will fall short of the mark. The big news in the top 10 this weekend, is the surprising performance of Indie Holocaust drama, The Boy in the Striped Pajamas, which expanded to 406 theatres from 38, grossing $1.7M.To see how all my predictions fared, check out the chart below.
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RANK
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TITLE
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NOVEMBER 21-23
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NOVEMBER 14-16
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% CHANGE
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# OF THEATRES
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# OF WEEKS
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TOTAL
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BILL SAID
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1
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Twilight
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$70.6M
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N/A
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N/A
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3419
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1
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$70.6M
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$65M
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2
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Quantum of Solace
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$27.4M
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$67.5M
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-59%
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3458
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2
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$109M
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$28M
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|
3
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Bolt
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$27M
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N/A
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N/A
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3651
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1
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$27M
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$38M
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|
4
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Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa
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$16M
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$35M
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-54%
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4007
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3
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$137M
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$17.5M
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5
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Role Models
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$7.2M
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$11.1M
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-35%
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2733
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3
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$48M
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$7.3M
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6
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Changeling
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$2.6M
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$4.2M
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-38%
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1739
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5
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$31.6M
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$2.5M
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7
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High School Musical 3: Senior Year
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$2M
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$5.6M
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-65%
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2361
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5
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$86.8M
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$2.3M
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8
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Zack and Miri Make a Porno
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$1.7M
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$3.1M
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-46%
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1222
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4
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$29.3M
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$1.5M
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9
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The Boy in the Striped Pajamas
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$1.67M
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$474,390
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+253%
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406
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3
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$2.65M
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N/A
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10
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The Secret Life of Bees
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$1.3M
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$2.3M
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-46%
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1095
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6
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$35.6M
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$1.7M
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