R-rated Survivalist drama The Grey is the second film to be distributed by Open Road Films (the first was last fall’s Killer Elite) and it looks as though the company will have its first #1 film this weekend. The film is about a group of oil drillers led by Neeson who must survive in the Alaskan wild after a plane crash. The trailer for the film has gotten a lot of mileage out of showcasing the hungry pack of wolves that are stalking the doomed survivors. Watching newly minted action star Liam Neeson go one on one with a ferocious wolf is the main reason The Grey will be #1 this weekend.

Neeson has had an illustrious career, but the nearly 60 year-old actor has transformed himself into a bad-ass over the last few years starring in films such as Taken, Unknown, The A-Team and even Batman Begins. As a result, the respected actor has now become an impressive box office draw. The target audience of young men will likely support the former Oscar Schindler, but they may be distracted by all of the other films aimed at that audience. The Grey will certainly capitalize on Neeson’s action persona but some critics have said that the actor gives an Oscar worthy performance in the film as well. This could lead to strong word of mouth giving Open Road Films a sleeper hit that could hold well for quite a few weeks. The reviews have been very good and this will help draw in the adult crowd and may also help the film remain a viable choice over the next few weeks.

Both Taken and Unknown opened above $20 million but The Grey will likely earn less in its first weekend mostly due to competition. Red Tails will steal away some of the adult audience while Underworld and Contraband may continue to distract young men. The film will also be competing with fellow new release Man on a Ledge for the same target audience. Expect The Grey to claw its way to a $14 million debut. 

Lionsgate’s One for the Money starring Katherine Heigl is based on the best-selling novel by Janet Evanovich. The PG-13 romantic comedy is about Stephanie Plum, a newly divorced and unemployed woman who goes to work at her cousin’s bail bond company. Her first assignment puts her on the trail of a wanted local cop who she used to date in high school played by Jason O’ Mara (Terra Nova). Outside of Heigl, star power is weak, leaving the films box office fate resting on her pretty little shoulders. The film has quite a few problems heading into the weekend.

One for the Money has been shuffled around the release schedule for a good year, originally scheduled to come out last April and then last September. The fact that it was pushed back to a January release signals that the studio has no real faith in the picture. Another sign that Lionsgate knows it has a dog on its hands is the fact that the film has yet to be screened for critics. After hitting it big on Grey’s Anatomy, Heigl has built a solid career as the go-to leading lady for romantic comedies, but her films have been faltering as of late. Her first few films routinely opened with $20 million or more but her star seems to have lost its luster over the past year or so. Her romantic comedy Killers co-starring Ashton Kutcher opened with about $15 million and her next film, Life as We Know It opened with slightly less. One for the Money seems like it is going to continue the downward trend. 

The only positives heading into the weekend are its lack of competition and Lionsgate’s deal with Groupon to offer two for one tickets. Couples looking for a date night movie don’t have many options this weekend and will likely see the film as a viable option. That being said, One for the Money, still has its work cut out for it this weekend. Look for One for the Money to open with about $11 million this weekend. 

PG-13 rated thriller Man on a Ledge from Summit Entertainment, stars Sam Worthington as an ex-cop turned con who threatens to jump from the ledge of a Manhattan high-rise. Elizabeth Banks co-stars as a police psychologist tasked with talking him off the ledge. Mr. Worthington may be just a distraction for the NYPD because at the same time a huge diamond heist is taking place. Sounds rather convoluted and if the poor reviews are any indication, it is. The film will truly be a test of Worthington’s drawing power outside of big budget special effects driven films. Worthington is joined by a strong cast including Banks, Edward Burns, Titus Welliver and Jamie Bell, but none of those actors are going to be much help at the box office.

Worthington has starred in a string of box office hits such as Avatar and Clash of the Titans but in all fairness, the success of those films cannot be attributed to him. They would’ve been big money makers with or without him. Can Worthington open a smaller film? Probably not. His last film, The Debt co-starring Helen Mirren and Jessica Chastain, barely registered at the box office and Man on a Ledge will probably follow in its footsteps. The awful reviews from critics certainly won’t help either. I think Man on a Ledge will steal away about $9 million this weekend. 

To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.

All debuting titles for the weekend are in red. 

Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be down about 5.8% from 2011.