PG-13 rated mockumentary Chronicle from 20^th Century Fox is about three teenagers who develop super powers. While the found footage genre is ripe for a backlash, especially after so many filmgoers were turned off by recent hit The Devil Inside, the super hero slant of the film is fresh enough to keep moviegoers interested. Chronicle has zero star power, but as evidenced by the smash hit Paranormal Activity films and the aforementioned The Devil Inside, that won’t be a problem. In fact, in terms of box office, there has only been one found footage film that didn’t work, last summer’s Apollo 18. To be fair though, Apollo 18 wasn’t a bomb because of its faux documentary style, but more because of its claustrophobic, outer space setting.

From Iron Man to MegaMind to Kick-Ass, super hero related films continue to play well at multiplexes. Chronicle may serve up as a delicious appetizer for audiences in what may well be the biggest superhero movie year ever, culminating this summer with the releases of The Amazing Spider-Man, The Avengers and The Dark Knight Rises. Reviews have been favorable so far; not that reviews mean anything to the film’s target audience, but they may help draw in a broader audience over the next few weekends. The biggest complications Chronicle faces this weekend is competition from football players and the former Harry Potter. Look for Chronicle to fly off with about $18 million this weekend.

Hoping to step out of the shadow of the character that made him famous, the former Harry Potter, Daniel Radcliffe stars in PG-13 haunted house thriller The Woman in Black from CBS Films. The film takes place in the early 1900’s with Radcliffe playing a lawyer who travels to a remote village where he discovers a ghost is terrorizing the locals. Radcliffe has developed into a fine actor and a period horror film as his first post-Harry Potter role is an interesting choice. The question is whether his fanbase will support him outside of the Potter universe. The film does have a few advantages heading into the weekend, but competition for the same target audience from the Super Bowl and Chronicle is going to keep the film from opening at its true potential.

That being said, the lack of any other fright flicks in the marketplace right now can only help The Woman in Black’s chances. Horror films tend to be solid earners during the first two months of the year with average openings ranging at about $13-15 million. With Radcliffe’s presence, solid reviews and a teen friendly PG-13 rating, the film should’ve been a lock for a $20 million opening, but as stated before competition and the NY Giants will likely keep that from happening. Instead the film will have to rely on positive word of mouth to propel it to a solid gross over the next few weekends. Look for The Woman in Black to scare up a $16 million debut.

PG rated family film Big Miracle from Universal stars Drew Barrymore and John Krasinski and is based on the true story of a family of whales that was trapped by rapidly forming ice in the Arctic circle. A news reporter (Krasinski) enlists his Greenpeace volunteer ex-girlfriend (Barrymore) to help campaign to save the whale’s lives leading to an international effort to save them. The reviews have been upbeat so far which will help the films cause, but stars Barrymore and Krasinski don’t have that much pull at the box office. That being said, last fall’s true story A Dolphin Tale opened with a surprise $19.2 million and that film was light on star power as well. Big Miracle does not have the advantage of higher priced 3D tickets like A Dolphin Tale did and will also lose a lot of Sunday traffic due to the Super Bowl. There is not one single film catering to family audiences this weekend (other than an already disappearing Beauty and the Beast) which means that Big Miracle could surprise and sail past expectations. Expect Big Miracle to swim off with about $10 million this weekend. 

To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.

All debuting titles for the weekend are in red. 

Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be up about 20.2% from 2011.