BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY 10-12
There are four new films opening in wide release this weekend: Channing Tatum tries to reignite his marriage with an amnesia ridden Rachel McAdams in love story The Vow from Sony Screen Gems, Denzel Washington and Ryan Reynolds play a game of cat and mouse in suspense thriller Safe House from Universal, another old film hits theatres in the third dimension with the rerelease of George Lucas’ Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace 3D from 20th Century Fox and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson fills in for Brendan Fraser in family-friendly adventure sequel Journey 2: The Mysterious Island from New Line Cinema. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate about $138.7 million over the weekend, up about 7.4% from last year when both Just Go With It from Sony and Paramount’s Justin Bieber: Never Say Never led the overall Top 10 to a total of $128.4 million.
Channing Tatum plus Rachel McAdams starring in a romantic drama based on a true story opening on the weekend before Valentine’s Day should equal box office gold, at least that is what Sony is hoping for this weekend. PG-13 rated The Vow from Sony Screen Gems should have what it takes to finish in first place this weekend, namely the attention of the date crowd and single women looking for a girl’s night out. It is no accident that Sony scheduled the film for this weekend as romantic films have a history of over-performing on the weekend leading into the lover’s holiday. The film is about a woman who loses her memories after an accident and her devoted husband who tries desperately to get her to remember their life together. Although it is based in truth, this may as well have been based on a best-selling novel from the Nicholas Sparks catalogue.
Over the last few years, both actors have come into their own and have become legitimate movie stars. Both stars also have history with romantic dramas, with McAdams starring in The Notebook (among others) and Tatum starring in Dear John, both of which grossed $80 million. The pairing of the two together should convince women that this is a must see movie and they will likely be out in force this weekend to support the film. The Vow also has absolutely no competition for its target audience and will capitalize on that in a big way. Look for The Vow to have a lovely debut of $35 million this weekend.
R-rated suspense thriller Safe House from Universal stars Denzel Washington as a rogue CIA agent who gets captured and is delivered to a safe house. When the safe house is attacked he is forced to go on the run with the young agent (Ryan Reynolds) tasked with looking after him. The plot doesn’t really matter as Safe House’s secret weapon is Denzel Washington. Really, is there a lead actor more reliable than Denzel when it comes to box office? He has starred in fourteen movies since 2000 (not including Safe House); eleven of which opened with more than $20 million. The actor has the Midas touch at the box office and there is no reason to believe that Safe House will be the exception to the rule.
Although two of his films (American Gangster and The Book of Eli) opened with more than $30 million, Safe House will likely open in the actor’s usual range in the low twenties. Washington does have some support in the form of Ryan Reynolds but after two box office bombs in a row (Green Lantern and The Change-Up), the actor has proven that he is not a guaranteed draw. The early reviews haven’t been very good, but Washington has certainly earned the trust and goodwill of the movie going public and they shouldn’t impact the opening all that much. The movie will face some competition for the young man demographic from last weekend’s box office champ Chronicle and The Phantom Menace which will also keep the film from breaking out. Expect Safe House to capture about $24 million this weekend.
20th Century Fox hopes the force is with them this weekend for the rerelease of 1999’s biggest box office hit, Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace, this time in 3D. Although The Phantom Menace was a huge hit, and the highest grosser among the prequel trilogy, it is one of the least loved entries in the series. Many fans of the original trilogy were highly disappointed by the film and the opinions have only gotten worse with time. Just check out any message board about the film for proof. That’s not to say that The Phantom Menace doesn’t have its fans, it just doesn’t have the support of the entire fanbase. Nonetheless, many fans who claim to hate the film will still buy a ticket just to see the awesome light saber duel at the end of the film in the third dimension.
George Lucas plans to release one Star Wars film a year in 3D, but one has to wonder if he started with the right film. The original film, 1977’s A New Hope probably would’ve been a better choice and would’ve likely performed better at the box office, drawing in all Star Wars fans. Besides the lack of fan support, The Phantom Menace has a few other problems heading into the weekend. Fellow 3D adventure film Journey 2: The Mysterious Island will steal away a portion of the family audience while Safe House may distract young men who otherwise would’ve been interested in another visit to the galaxy far, far away. Audiences are also continuing to tire of converted 3D and if word gets out that the effect is underwhelming, you can expect the box office for the film to dry up quicker than you can say scruffy looking nerf herder. I believe that Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace will blast off with about $21 million this weekend.
PG rated family adventure film Journey 2: The Mysterious Island from New Line Cinema is the sequel to 2008’s hit 3D film Journey to the Center of the Earth starring Brendan Fraser. This time around Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson has stepped into the lead role left vacant by Fraser and is joined by the star of the original film, Josh Hutcherson, soon to be seen in The Hunger Games. The Rock has become a solid anchor in family films (The Game Plan, The Tooth Fairy and Race to Witch Mountain) and has also become the go to actor for sequels looking for a new leading man (Fast Five and G.I. Joe: Retaliation). As such, Journey 2 is the perfect vehicle for the pro-wrestler turned thespian. The first Journey opened with about $20 million but made its way to the $100 million mark because it was released at the very beginning of the 3D revolution. Journey 2 enters a marketplace where 3D has become the norm and while this might not impact its opening weekend, long term success is going to be difficult to achieve. The reviews have been mixed but Johnson has earned the trust of family audiences and they shouldn’t have much impact. Journey 2’s biggest obstacle will be direct competition from The Phantom Menace. Look for Journey 2: The Mysterious Island to uncover about $20 million this weekend.
To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.
Weekend Release Schedule, 2012 vs. 2011
All debuting titles for the weekend are in red.
FEBRUARY 10-12 2012
|
RANK
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
|
FILMGO’S PREDICTION
|
|
1
|
The Vow
|
Romantic Drama
|
Sony Screen Gems
|
$35.0M
New
|
|
2
|
Safe House
|
Thriller/Suspense
|
Universal
|
$24.0M
New
|
|
3
|
Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace
|
Sci-fi/Adventure
|
20th Century Fox
|
$21.0M
New
|
|
4
|
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
|
Adventure
|
New Line Cinema
|
$20.0M
New
|
|
5
|
Chronicle
|
Action/Thriller
|
20th Century Fox
|
$11.4M
-48%
|
|
6
|
The Woman in Black
|
Horror
|
CBS Films
|
$11.1M
-47%
|
|
7
|
The Grey
|
Adventure/Drama
|
Open Road Films
|
$5.4M
-42%
|
|
8
|
Big Miracle
|
Family Drama
|
Universal
|
$4.3M
-45%
|
|
9
|
The Descendants
|
Drama
|
Fox Searchlight
|
$3.7M
-20%
|
|
10
|
One for the Money
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Lionsgate
|
$2.8M
-46%
|
TOTAL $138.7M
FEBRUARY 11-13 2011
|
RANK
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
|
WEEKEND GROSS
|
|
1
|
Just Go With It
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Sony
|
$30.5M
New
|
|
2
|
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
|
Concert
|
Paramount
|
$29.5M
New
|
|
3
|
Gnomeo and Juliet
|
Animated Comedy
|
Disney
|
$25.4M
New
|
|
4
|
The Eagle
|
Drama
|
Focus Features
|
$8.7M
New
|
|
5
|
The Roommate
|
Thriller/Suspense
|
Sony
|
$8.1M
-46%
|
|
6
|
The King’s Speech
|
Drama
|
The Weinstein Co.
|
$7.2M
-6%
|
|
7
|
No Strings Attached
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Paramount
|
$5.8M
-27%
|
|
8
|
Sanctum
|
Adventure
|
Universal
|
$5.7M
-40%
|
|
9
|
True Grit
|
Western
|
Paramount
|
$3.8M
-18%
|
|
10
|
The Green Hornet
|
Action
|
Sony
|
$3.7M
-38%
|
TOTAL $128.4M
Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be up about 7.4% from 2011.
Preview of Films Opening Next Weekend
Predictions for the Weekend of February 17-20 2012*
There are two new films opening in wide release the weekend of February 17-20: Nicholas Cage returns as a motorcycle riding, leather wearing, flaming skulled, avenging superhero in comic book sequel Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance from Sony and partner spies Chris Pine and Tom Hardy go toe to toe over Reese Witherspoon’s affection in romantic comedy This Means War from 20th Century Fox.
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR
|
PREDICTION
|
|
Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance
|
Action/Adventure
|
Sony Columbia
|
$24.0M*
|
|
This Means War
|
Romantic Comedy
|
20th Century Fox
|
$13.0M*
|
*Indicates 4 day weekend