The first of 2012’s big comic book movies, Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance, starring Nicolas Cage rides into theatres this weekend and while the film may have a #1 debut, it will likely be seen as a box office failure by the end of its run. The past few years haven’t been very kind to Nicolas Cage in terms of his box office success. His last film, Trespass, co-starring Nicole Kidman went straight to DVD after a limited release in 10 theatres. Before that, Cage had a string of flops including Drive Angry ($5.2 million opening/$10.7 million total), Season of the Witch ($10.6 million opening/$24.8 million total) and Disney’s The Sorcerer’s Apprentice ($17.6 million opening/$63.2 million total). Of course, Cage’s career has had many ups and downs and Ghost Rider does come with a built in fanbase, but after a fairly awful first film, how much goodwill for the character could possibly be left?
The first film debuted with $45.4 million and stalled out at $115.8 million due to poor word of mouth. In the four years since its release, superhero films have begun to show signs of deterioration at the box office as evidenced by last summer’s crop of comic book films. Green Lantern was an outright bomb, Thor and Captain America vastly underperformed in comparison to Iron Man or Spider-Man and X-Men: First Class was the lowest grossing film in the series. The Marvel films made enough to achieve hit status, but there is definite erosion starting. It will be interesting to see how this affects the big three (The Dark Knight Rises, The Avengers and The Amazing Spider-Man) this summer. Between the quieter reception for superhero flicks and the fading popularity of Nicolas Cage, Ghost Rider may be in for a bumpy road. Look for Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance to race away with about $29 million over the four day frame and for it to flame out shortly after.
R-rated action rom-com This Means War stars Chris Pine and Tom Hardy as partner spies at war over a beautiful woman played by Reese Witherspoon. At first glance the film seems to have a powerhouse cast but the truth is none of them are all that reliable. Witherspoon has had the longest and most successful career at this point but based on the performance of her last few films, her star seems to have lost its luster. Last year’s Water for Elephants wasn’t a complete dud, opening with $16.8 million and collecting $58.7 million. Certainly not peanuts, but still the film failed to live up to expectations. Her prior film How Do You Know was an outright flop opening with a dismal $7.5 million on its way to $30.2 million.
Chris Pine has starred in two big hits, Star Trek and Unstoppable, but This Means War is a truer test of his drawing power. Star Trek had a huge built in audience and Unstoppable was a Denzel Washington movie. Tom Hardy co-starred in Inception and will do the same in this summer’s The Dark Knight Rises, but in between his starring role in Warrior didn’t prevent that film from being KO’d at the box office, despite nearly universal praise. Neither actor is in the position of being a sure thing at the box office, together or separate. Working against the films chances of success are poor reviews from critics and tough competition for its target audience from last weekend’s box office champ The Vow. Expect This Means War to fight its way to about $17 million over the four day holiday.
G-rated animated fairy tale The Secret World of Arrietty from Disney is made by Oscar winning filmmaker Hayao Miyazaki. The film based on the children’s book “The Borrowers” is about a family of four-inch tall people who live secretly in another family’s home. Things change however for the tiny family when their daughter Arrietty is discovered. The film features a voice cast that includes Amy Poehler, Bridgit Mendler, Will Arnett and Carol Burnett. The film has been receiving glowing reviews but the audience for a film like this is limited at best, especially among a generation of kids raised on CGI movies like Alvin and the Chipmunks. The film enters a marketplace that is already occupied by a few family friendly films such as Journey 2, Big Miracle and even The Phantom Menace 3D, leaving very little chance that the film will be able to open stronger than Disney’s last Japanese animated film Ponyo ($3.6 million opening). Look for The Secret World of Arrietty to open quietly with about $5 million over the four day holiday.
To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.
Weekend Release Schedule, 2012 vs. 2011
All debuting titles for the weekend are in red.
FEBRUARY 17-20 2012
|
RANK
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
|
FILMGO’S PREDICTION
|
|
1
|
Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance
|
Adventure/Action
|
Sony
|
$25.0M New
3 day
$29.0M
4 day
|
|
2
|
The Vow
|
Romantic Drama
|
Sony Screen Gems
|
$24.7M -40%
3 day
$28.8M -30%
4 day
|
|
3
|
Safe House
|
Thriller/Suspense
|
Universal
|
$22.1M -45%
3 day
$25.9M -35%
4 day
|
|
4
|
Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
|
Adventure
|
New Line Cinema
|
$19.1M -30%
3 day
$23.9M -12%
4 day
|
|
5
|
This Means War
|
Romantic Comedy
|
20th Century Fox
|
$14.5M New
3 day
$17.0M
4 day
|
|
6
|
Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace
|
Sci-fi/Adventure
|
20th Century Fox
|
$11.3M -50%
3 day
$14.1M -36%
4 day
|
|
7
|
Chronicle
|
Action/Thriller
|
20th Century Fox
|
$6.7M -45%
3 day
$7.8M -36%
4 day
|
|
8
|
The Woman in Black
|
Horror
|
CBS Films
|
$5.4M -47%
3 day
$6.3M -38%
4 day
|
|
9
|
The Secret World of Arrietty
|
Animated
|
Disney
|
$4.0M New
3 day
$5.0M
4 day
|
|
10
|
Big Miracle
|
Family Drama
|
Universal
|
$3.0M -24%
3 day
$3.6M -8%
4 day
|
TOTAL $135.8M 3 day
FEBRUARY 18-20 2011
|
RANK
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
|
WEEKEND GROSS
|
|
1
|
Unknown
|
Thriller/Suspense
|
Warner Bros.
|
$21.9M
New
|
|
2
|
I Am Number Four
|
Adventure
|
Disney
|
$19.4M
New
|
|
3
|
Gnomeo and Juliet
|
Animated Comedy
|
Disney
|
$19.2M
-24%
|
|
4
|
Just Go With It
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Sony
|
$18.5M
-39%
|
|
5
|
Big Momma’s: Like Father, Like Son
|
Comedy
|
20th Century Fox
|
$16.3M
New
|
|
6
|
Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
|
Concert
|
Paramount
|
$13.3M
-55%
|
|
7
|
The King’s Speech
|
Drama
|
The Weinstein Co.
|
$6.5M
-10%
|
|
8
|
The Roommate
|
Thriller/Suspense
|
Sony
|
$3.9M
-52%
|
|
9
|
The Eagle
|
Drama
|
Focus Features
|
$3.6M
-58%
|
|
10
|
No Strings Attached
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Paramount
|
$3.1M
-47%
|
TOTAL $125.7M
Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be up about 7.4% from 2011.
Preview of Films Opening Next Weekend
Predictions for the Weekend of February 24-26 2012
There are four new films opening in wide release the weekend of February 24-26: Lionsgate releases the latest from Tyler Perry called Good Deeds, Paul Rudd and Jennifer Aniston try to get back to basics in R-rated comedy Wanderlust from Universal, a group of real life navy seals star in military action drama Act of Valor from Relativity Media and Amanda Seyfried tracks down a kidnapper in Gone from Summit Entertainment.
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR
|
PREDICTION
|
|
Good Deeds
|
Comedy/Drama
|
Lionsgate
|
$16.0M
|
|
Wanderlust
|
Comedy
|
Universal
|
$14.0M
|
|
Act of Valor
|
Action/Adventure
|
Relativity Media
|
$12.0M
|
|
Gone
|
Thriller/Suspense
|
Summit Entertainment
|
$3.0M
|