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Feb
22
Written by:
Bill Bonfanti
2/22/2012 10:51 PM
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF FEBRUARY 24-26
There are four new films opening in wide release this weekend: A group of real life navy seals star in military action drama Act of Valor from Relativity Media, Lionsgate releases the latest from Tyler Perry called Good Deeds, Paul Rudd and Jennifer Aniston try to get back to basics in R-rated comedy Wanderlust from Universal and Amanda Seyfried tracks down a kidnapper in Gone from Summit Entertainment. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate about $111 million over the weekend, up about 16.8% from last year when comedy Hall Pass from Warner Bros. led the overall Top 10 to a total of $92.4 million. R-rated military action drama Act of Valor from Relativity Media stars active real life navy seals and that is its biggest selling point. The film boasts a realistic approach to action and places the emphasis on what it takes to be a successful team of soldiers. The film is about a group of navy seals that are on a mission to recover a kidnapped CIA operative which unexpectedly results in the discovery of an imminent global threat. The films biggest weakness, that it features a no name cast, may also be its greatest strength. Audiences may very well be enticed by the supposed realism of the film.
Act of Valor also has the action crowd all to itself this weekend which will certainly help its cause. Early reviews haven’t been too favorable with most critics complaining that the scenes in between the action are nearly intolerable due to the horrific acting on display, even from those that are actually actors. Some critics have even suggested that Act of Valor even comes off as a propaganda film, selling the dream of serving in the U.S. military. The R-rating may keep the film from breaking out into a $20 million opener, but the film will likely open with enough to take the #1 spot this weekend. Look for Act of Valor to battle its way to an opening of about $17 million.
With Good Deeds, the latest from Tyler Perry, Lionsgate looks to continue its lucrative relationship with the filmmaker. Perry once again serves as writer, director and star. The film is about Wesley Deeds, a businessman who falls for a single mother who works on the cleaning crew in his office. Good Deeds is notable because it is an original screenplay by Perry that is not adapted from one of his hit plays. This means that Good Deeds doesn’t have the same built in audience that the writer’s other films enjoyed, but the fact is, Perry’s name is truly all that matters to his fans. They’ll be just as excited to see an original story as they would be an adaption. That being said, Good Deeds doesn’t feature Perry’s most popular character Madea and will open more in the range of his other non-Madea films.
As always, black women will come out to support Perry’s latest, but the film will have a difficult time branching out into other demographics. The film has yet to be reviewed by critics but that won’t be an issue. This is an interesting year for Perry as he is set to star in the film adaption of best-selling novel Alex Cross by James Patterson. This will be the first time Perry has starred in a film that he didn’t write or direct and it may widen his fanbase quite a bit. I expect Good Deeds to open with about $16 million this weekend.
R-rated comedy Wanderlust from Universal stars Jennifer Aniston and Paul Rudd as a Manhattan couple that explores alternate living options, ultimately deciding to experiment with living on a rural commune where free loves rules. The film is directed by David Wain, best known for Role Models which also starred Rudd. Both stars are hit or miss at the box office; 2011 was kind to Aniston at the box office with hits Horrible Bosses and Just Go With It, while Rudd had a difficult year with both Our Idiot Brother and How Do You Know? tanking at the box office. In all fairness, both of Aniston’s films were hits but Horrible Bosses featured an ensemble cast while Just Go With It was an Adam Sandler film. Whenever she doesn’t have a strong (in terms of box office) co-star, Aniston fails to bring in audiences. While Rudd is an immensely likable actor, he is not a guaranteed draw, which could be a problem for Wanderlust.
Wanderlust does have the benefit of being the only comedy in the marketplace but that won’t take it that far. The trailer for the film simply doesn’t deliver that many laughs and provides no major reason not to wait a few months to watch the film at home. The early reviews have been mixed, although most reviewers agree that there are quite a few side-splitting moments. The film should bring in a portion of the young adult date crowd but it will have to deal with competition from The Vow and This Means War. Wanderlust should meander away with about $11 million this weekend.
PG-13 suspense thriller Gone from Summit Entertainment stars Amanda Seyfried as a former kidnap victim whose sister is abducted. Believing that her sister has been taken by the same lunatic that kidnapped her, she embarks on a crusade to rescue her. Plot aside, the film looks positively dreadful and just like its title suggests, it will be gone from theatres in a hurry. Since breaking out with 2010’s Dear John ($30.5 million opening/$80 million total), Seyfried’s films have been declining with each successive film indicating that her time in the sun may be coming to an end. Letters to Juliet performed well enough, collecting a total of $53 million, but her next two films, Red Riding Hood and In Time both topped out at about $37 million each. Seyfried should probably stick to romances as action/suspense films aren’t working out too well for her. The one bright spot for Gone is that it features Michael Pare, the star of 80’s classic Eddie and the Cruisers, who has been having a resurgence as of late. Look for Gone to open with a paltry $4 million somewhere outside of the Top 10.
To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.
Weekend Release Schedule, 2012 vs. 2011
All debuting titles for the weekend are in red.
FEBRUARY 24-26 2012
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RANK
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TITLE
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GENRE
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DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
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FILMGO’S PREDICTION
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1
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Act of Valor
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Action
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Relativity Media
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$17.0M
New
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2
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Good Deeds
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Comedy/Drama
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Lionsgate
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$16.0M
New
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3
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Safe House
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Thriller/Suspense
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Universal
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$13.7M
-42%
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4
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Journey 2: The Mysterious Island
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Adventure
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New Line Cinema
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$13.5M
-32%
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5
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The Vow
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Romantic Drama
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Sony Screen Gems
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$13.2M
-43%
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6
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Wanderlust
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Comedy
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Universal
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$11.0M
New
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7
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This Means War
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Romantic Comedy
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20th Century Fox
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$9.6M
-45%
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8
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Ghost Rider: Spirit of Vengeance
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Adventure/Action
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Sony
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$8.4M
-62%
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9
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Chronicle
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Action/Thriller
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20th Century Fox
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$4.4M
-42%
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10
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The Secret World of Arrietty
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Animated
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Disney
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$4.2M
-35%
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TOTAL $111.0M
FEBRUARY 18-20 2011
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RANK
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TITLE
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GENRE
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DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
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WEEKEND GROSS
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1
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Hall Pass
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Comedy
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Warner Bros.
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$13.5M
New
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2
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Gnomeo and Juliet
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Animated Comedy
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Disney
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$13.4M
-30%
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3
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Unknown
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Thriller/Suspense
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Warner Bros.
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$12.6M
-46%
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4
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I Am Number Four
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Adventure
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Disney
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$11.0M
-43%
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5
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Just Go With It
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Romantic Comedy
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Sony
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$10.5M
-43%
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6
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Justin Bieber: Never Say Never
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Concert
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Paramount
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$9.4M
-29%
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7
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Big Momma’s: Like Father, Like Son
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Comedy
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20th Century Fox
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$7.6M
-53%
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8
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The King’s Speech
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Drama
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The Weinstein Co.
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$7.3M
+12%
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9
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Drive Angry
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Action
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Summit Entertainment
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$5.2M
New
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10
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True Grit
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Western
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Paramount
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$1.9M
-19%
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TOTAL $92.4M
Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be up about 16.8% from 2011.
Preview of Films Opening Next Weekend
Predictions for the Weekend of March 2-4 2012
There are two new films opening in wide release the weekend of March 2-4: Universal releases animated comedy The Lorax based on the popular Dr. Seuss book and Warner Bros. introduces a new take on the found footage genre with out of control party movie Project X.
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TITLE
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GENRE
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DISTRIBUTOR
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PREDICTION
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The Lorax
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Animated Comedy
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Universal
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$42.0M
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Project X
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Comedy
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Warner Bros.
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$11.0M
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4 comment(s) so far...
Re: Navy Seals Invade the Box Office
You're probably right about the order of the new releases, with the possible exception of Tyler Perry and Act of Valor. TP might edge out Act of Valor for #1 among new releases.
You are pretty far off about Amanda Seyfried, though you're right about Gone being a near certain bomb. Gone is a small movie with almost no marketing behind it, and is the last release marketed by Summit before it becomes a subsidiary of Lionsgate. I think it will make more like $6-$7 million though. You are wrong about Seyfried's movies making progressively less money, if you go by worldwide box office numbers rather than by only US numbers. Worldwide, Letters to Juliet made $79,181,750, Red Riding Hood made $89,162,162, and In Time made $149,320,095. In Time actually made a lot of money worldwide, almost all of it internationally. $111,800,000 internationally, and $37,520,095 in the US. As you can see, the total box office for Seyfried's movies has been increasing, not decreasing. In Time is her second highest grossing movie, having made more than Dear John ( $114,977,104) and Mean Girls ($129,042,871) with only Mamma Mia ($609,841,637) making more. Those are good numbers for modestly budgeted movies.
Gone will no doubt bomb, but no one in the industry expected otherwise, so Seyfried won't be damaged by it. She has The Wedding, Lovelace, and Les Mis coming up in the fall and winter, with two more movies (Girl Who Conned the Ivy League and Pete and Goat) to be filmed later in the year. Barring a Megan Fox style career destroying gaffe, Seyfried's time in the sun is not likely to end anytime soon.
By Brian-Hamilton on
2/23/2012 5:52 AM
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Re: Navy Seals Invade the Box Office
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Re: Navy Seals Invade the Box Office
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