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May
9
Written by:
Bill Bonfanti
5/9/2012 11:14 PM
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF MAY 11-13
There is only one new film opening in wide release this weekend: Once again director Tim Burton has teamed up with his eternal muse Johnny Depp for another movie. Dark Shadows is an adaption of the cult classic vampire laced soap opera from the 60’s of the same name. Burton’s version seems to be more of a comedic take on the characters which may turn-off fans of the original series (whoever they may be?). Audiences have come to trust the Burton/Depp brand which all but guarantees a solid opening, but the films legs will largely depend on word of mouth. The film also has the misfortune of being the first new movie to be released in the wake of box office juggernaut The Avengers and may find itself lost in the superhero flicks shadow. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate about $156.3 million over the weekend, up about 18.9% from last year when Paramount’s Thor and Universal’s Bridesmaids led the overall Top 10 to a total of $126.8 million. Dark Shadows from Warner Bros. represents the eighth collaboration between filmmaker Tim Burton and actor Johnny Depp. The film, based on the soap opera from the late 60’s, is a comedic interpretation of the series and stars Depp as vampire Barnabas Collins. After being imprisoned for centuries, Barnabas is set free and returns to his ancestral home circa 1972, where he meets his dysfunctional descendants and steps-up to bring glory back to the family name. The PG-13 rated horror/comedy hybrid features a strong supporting cast including Michelle Pfeifer, Chloe Moretz, Jackie Earle Haley and frequent Burton star, Helena Bonham Carter. Although the cast is quite strong, the box office potential for the film relies mostly on whether audiences are interested in seeing Depp in makeup yet again. Tim Burton’s name should help as well, especially after the success of his last collaboration with Depp, 2010’s Alice in Wonderland.
Burton and Depp’s films together range from moderate to huge successes with their biggest hits being 2005’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory ($56.2 million opening/$206.5 million total) and 2010’s Alice in Wonderland ($116.1 million opening/$334.2 million total). Most of their other films together average a total gross just over $50 million. The major difference with their biggest hits is that they were family friendly films based on extremely recognizable properties. While Dark Shadows is a familiar property, it certainly doesn’t have a huge following and will not appeal to families in the least bit, cutting out much of the box office potential for the film. Perhaps the best comparison would be 1999’s Sleepy Hollow ($30.1 million opening/$101.1 million total) which was based on a famous story but was aimed at a more adult audience. With ticket inflation over the last decade, it should be a no-brainer that Dark Shadows should be able to match the performance of that film, but Dark Shadows has quite a few deficits heading into the weekend.
First and foremost are the poor reviews the film is getting from critics. Some films are review proof but this is not one of them. As of right now, Dark Shadows is the worst reviewed film of Tim Burton’s career sitting neck and neck with his abysmal Planet of the Apes remake from 2001. Another thing that may come into effect here is backlash against Johnny Depp in full make-up and costume. After paying good money to see him as Captain Jack Sparrow in the last two Pirates of the Caribbean films which were disappointing to say the least, are audiences going to continue to trust the actor to entertain them? They’ve already abandoned him at the box office in his “normal” films such as The Tourist and The Rum Diaries and it is only a matter of time before they stop supporting him in these types of roles as well. This may not happen with Dark Shadows, but Disney should be worried about The Lone Ranger. The last big problem Dark Shadows will face this weekend is huge competition from last weekend’s opening weekend record breaker The Avengers. Word of mouth has been unbelievable for the superhero epic and audiences will continue to pack into theatres to see the movie this weekend. It looks very possible that Marvel’s giant will become the first movie to gross over $100 million in its second weekend. Look for Dark Shadows to suck up about $30 million this weekend.
To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.
Weekend Release Schedule, 2012 vs. 2011
All debuting titles for the weekend are in red.
MAY 11-13 2012
|
RANK
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TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
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FILMGO’S PREDICTION
|
|
1
|
The Avengers
|
Action/Adventure
|
Disney/Marvel
|
$107.8M
-48%
|
|
2
|
Dark Shadows
|
Horror/Comedy
|
Warner Bros.
|
$30.0M
New
|
|
3
|
Think Like a Man
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Sony Screen Gems
|
$4.1M
-50%
|
|
4
|
The Hunger Games
|
Action/Adventure
|
Lionsgate
|
$3.1M
-45%
|
|
5
|
The Lucky One
|
Drama
|
Warner Bros.
|
$2.9M
-47%
|
|
6
|
The Five-Year Engagement
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Universal
|
$2.7M
-46%
|
|
7
|
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
|
Animated Adventure
|
Sony
|
$2.6M
-53%
|
|
8
|
Chimpanzee
|
Documentary
|
DisneyNature
|
$1.2M
-51%
|
|
9
|
Safe
|
Action
|
Lionsgate
|
$1.0M
-62%
|
|
10
|
The Raven
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Suspense/Thriller
|
Relativity Media
|
$0.9M
-65%
|
TOTAL $156.3M
MAY 13-15 2011
|
RANK
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
|
WEEKEND GROSS
|
|
1
|
Thor
|
Action/Adventure
|
Paramount
|
$34.7M
-47%
|
|
2
|
Bridesmaids
|
Comedy
|
Universal
|
$26.2M
New
|
|
3
|
Fast Five
|
Action
|
Universal
|
$20.4M
-37%
|
|
4
|
Priest
|
Action/Horror
|
Sony
|
$15.0M
New
|
|
5
|
Rio
|
Animated Adventure
|
20th Century Fox
|
$8.3M
-3%
|
|
6
|
Jumping the Broom
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Sony
|
$7.1M
-54%
|
|
7
|
Something Borrowed
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Warner Bros.
|
$6.9M
-51%
|
|
8
|
Water for Elephants
|
Drama
|
20th Century Fox
|
$4.2M
-31%
|
|
9
|
Madea’s Big Happy Family
|
Comedy
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Lionsgate
|
$2.2M
-47%
|
|
10
|
Soul Surfer
|
Drama
|
Sony
|
$1.8M
-21%
|
TOTAL $126.8M
Based on my estimates for the Friday to Sunday period, total box office will be up about 18.9% from 2011.
Preview of Films Opening Next Weekend
Predictions for the Weekend of May 18-20 2012
There are three new films opening in wide release the weekend of May 18-20: Sasha Baron Cohen gets a jump start on the weekend with the Wednesday release of his latest comedy offering The Dictator from Paramount, Universal teams with Hasbro for PG-13 action flick Battleship based on the popular board game and a huge ensemble cast including Elizabeth Banks, Chris Rock, Jennifer Lopez, Cameron Diaz and Dennis Quaid star in the adaption of best-selling self-help book What to Expect When You are Expecting from Lionsgate. Although The Dictator opens on Wednesday, the prediction below is for Friday to Sunday only. I think the film will collect about $10 million in its first two days of release.
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR
|
PREDICTION
|
|
The Dictator
|
Comedy
|
Paramount
|
$16.0M
|
|
Battleship
|
Action
|
Universal
|
$48.0M
|
|
What to Expect When You are Expecting
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Lionsgate
|
$28.0M
|
Tags:
62 comment(s) so far...
Re: Depp’s Latest Opens in The Avengers Shadow
I'm right there with you Bill, I've got Dark Shadows opening at $31m. I'm a little hopeful that the film pulls in under $25m, in the hopes that we'll stop getting this type of garbage from Burton and Depp.
By Joe on
5/10/2012 9:31 AM
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Re: Depp’s Latest Opens in The Avengers Shadow
To be honest, I think there is a good chance of that happening, but you can't underestimate Depp's pull in this type of film. I too, would love it to bomb, because I'm sick of watching Johnny Depp dress up for Halloween. I'm not a huge fan of Burton's either. While I think he has a cool visual style, I think his storytelling ability isn't very good.
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Re: Depp’s Latest Opens in The Avengers Shadow
Miller, Nelson among hoops Hall inductees
She was the first person he called after he got the call. And Cheryl Miller will be on stage to present her brother, Reggie, when he is inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.
It's an honor that can only go to a previous inductee.
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Reggie Miller will be honored on Friday night along with longtime coach Don Nelson, Nike co-founder Phil Knight and nine others in the biggest induction class in more than 50 years. The former Indiana Pacers star joins big sister Cheryl, a 1995 inductee who is 20 months his elder, to form the first brother-sister pair in the Springfield shrine.
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"If you were going to tell me you would have two Hall of Famers from the same family, I probably would have looked at you like you were crazy," Reggie Miller said Thursday after a ceremony in which the inductees were presented with their Hall of Fame blazers.
"Without Cheryl's hard work and dedication to the game of basketball, I don't know if I would ever be on this stage. She's the reason why I'm here."
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A five-time All-Star and 1996 Olympic gold medalist, Reggie Miller retired as the leading 3-point shooter in NBA history and one of the most clutch players in the history of the league. Beloved in Indiana, where he spent his entire 18-year career, he is remembered in New York with equal parts respect and revulsion for scoring eight points in 8.9 seconds to beat the Knicks in a 1995 playoff game.
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His competitiveness was developed in childhood games with Cheryl and their three other siblings - not just basketball in the driveway, but also Monopoly or Uno or Risk or dominoes (Darrell Miller made the major leagues as a catcher, and sister Tammy was a high school track star who played volleyball in college).
"No one messed with the Millers," Reggie said. "And we always had each other's back. I guess that's what family is all about."
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Also on stage receiving their Hall of Fame jackets on Thursday were Don Nelson, the winningest coach in NBA history, and Nike co-founder Phil Knight. Ralph Sampson, the only three-time college player of the year, and Jamaal Wilkes, who won two NCAA titles at and four in the NBA, are also among the honorees.
Also to be inducted are seven-time NBA All-Star Chet Walker; the All American Redheads, known as the female Harlem Globetrotters; two-time Olympic gold medalist Katrina McClain; former Soviet women's coach Lidia Alexeeva, who was undefeated in 17 years of international play; the late Don Barksdale, the first black player on the U.S. Olympic team and in the NBA All-Star game; two-time NBA MVP Mel Daniels, and longtime NCAA referee Hank Nichols.
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Although most Hall of Famers profess to be surprised when they get the call, Knight made a good case for it: He didn't even know there was a "contributors" category, so he never considered the possibility that he would be inducted. He will be presented for induction by Michael Jordan and former Georgetown coach John Thompson.
"Nobody ever had two better presenters," Knight said while sitting in front of a 16-by-23 shoe wall of Nike high-tops mounted to look like an American flag. "It's almost like that old TV show `This is Your Life.' You look back then, with Michael Jordan and John Thompson and the 40 years you've been a part of this, it's been a fabulous ride."
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Nelson won five NBA titles as a Boston Celtics player and 1,335 games during 31 years on the bench in Milwaukee, Golden State, New York and Dallas. Then he retired and disappeared to Hawaii, where he is an entrepreneur with rental properties, a shaved ice stand, coffee plants and koa trees.
Sampson was the only person to win The Associated Press player of the year award three times, from 1981-83 for Virginia. He was the No. 1 overall draft pick by the Houston Rockets and averaged 21 points and 11 rebounds per game as the 1984 rookie of the year.
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But knee problems hampered him, his numbers soon declined and he lasted just nine years, the last four as a part-time player. By 2003, he was $300,000 behind in child support and in prison on a two-month sentence after pleading guilty to mail fraud.
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"I've not been around over the last several years," Sampson said after slipping on his oversized blazer. "But you can't hide 7-foot-4."
Nichols refereed six NCAA championship games and 10 Final Fours, as well as two Olympics and the European championships. After leaving the court, he became the NCAA's national coordinator for officials.
He was introduced to a warm ovation.
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"Unaccustomed as I am to hearing applause when my name is said," he said, "I have so many different emotions it's difficult to articulate them."www.highheelsonlinecheap.com
Jordan's presence intrigues crowd at Bobcats practice
One of the roughly 1,500 spectators who turned out for the Charlotte Bobcats’ open practice and scrimmage Thursday seemed to almost draw as much attention as the events unfolding on Kimmel Arena’s floor.
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A steady stream of fans lined a stairway nearest Michael Jordan’s seat waiting their turn to snap a photo of the team owner who’s best known for dominating the NBA in the 1980s and ’90s after he led North Carolina to the NCAA national championship in 1982.
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Wearing a black shirt and dark pants, Jordan sat on the bottom row near a corner exit and watched the 1 1/2 hour session. But after Cory Higgins’ sudden-death free throw in extra time gave the White squad a 71-70 win, Jordan slipped out without signing autographs.
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Many of the about 60 fans who’d shelled out $100 apiece for a VIP meet-and-greet with Bobcats executives before the scrimmage sat one section from Jordan and frequently looked to their left for a glimpse of the five-time NBA MVP. Though they received no guarantee Jordan would attend the event or scrimmage, several mentioned his name when asked why they attended.
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“I’m here to see Michael,” said Charles Monroe, an Asheville resident who brought a commemorative Sports Illustrated issue with Jordan on the cover in hopes of getting an autograph.
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“I’m a lifelong Carolina fan,” Monroe said. “We were going to try and get some tickets to go down to UNC for our wedding anniversary, but my wife (Kristy) said, ‘Here, this is the next-best thing.’”
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Monroe said he enjoyed the lively practice and close game. Asked if he was disappointed about not getting Jordan’s autograph, he smiled and said: “It’s all good.”
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Cory Penland, of Fletcher, brought his seven-year-old son Cole to the meet-and-greet. Even though he wasn’t born when Jordan retired from the game (2003), Cole said the reason he came was: “because I want to meet Michael Jordan and the coaches and players.”
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Fans who didn’t attend the VIP event weren’t charged admission.
Jami Bratu was one of the many fans thrilled to snap a photo of the celebrity from close range.
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“I think it’s awesome,” said Bratu, who lives in Hendersonville. “He’s a Carolina boy. (For him) to come to the Western North Carolina area is pretty awesome because sometimes we’re like the abandoned stepchild of North Carolina.”
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UNC Asheville athletic director Janet Cone said the VIP event raised about $6,000 for the Bulldogs’ student-athlete scholarship fund.
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She approached Jordan during the scrimmage, spoke to him for a few minutes then introduced chancellor Anne Ponder to him. Jordan did not grant media interviews.
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“I thanked him for allowing his organization to choose our city and our university and also to ask him what he thought,” Cone said. “He said, ‘Everybody’s been wonderful, whether it’s been on campus or at the hotel or restaurants.’”
Golden girl Victoria Pendleton swaps her helmet hair for glossy locks as she parties with Kylie Minogue
She is one of Britain's most successful female Olympian. And as she bowed out of her elite career last week with a clutch of medals, the nation shed a collective tear as she wept with from an exhausting mix of joy, disappointment and relief on the podium.
But last night, as gold and silver-medal winner Victoria Pendleton appeared at a party for Samsung, there was no sign of the emotion of the past two weeks.
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The golden girl appeared at a launch event for the Samsung Galaxy Note mobile phone, and posed for photographs on the red carpet wearing a gold Herve Leger mini dress with nude Christian Louboutin heels.
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The fitted dress showed off the perfectly honed thighs that powered Pendleton to glory over the past eight years - and that allow her to pedal an incredible 200 times per minute in the velodrome.
The cyclist attended the bash with her fiance, Scott Gardner, an Australian working as a coach for Team GB.
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Inside the party, held at One Mayfair hotel, Pendleton chatted to fellow Olympians and medal-winners Zara Phillips, who won silver with the Team GB eventing team, and new star of the Olympic cycling team, Laura Trott, whose double gold success in the velodrome has made her one of Britain's most successful female Olympians to date - despite her tender age of just 20.
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Blonde Trott arrived on the arm of her boyfriend and fellow gold medal winning cylist Jason Kenny, whose black suit matched her cut away LBD perfectly.
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Also on the guest list were a roll call of British success stories on the track, field, velodrome and in the pool, including gold medal winning rower Alex Partridge, Olympic champion sprint cyclist Jason Kenny, 5000m runner Emily Pidgeon; synchronised swimmers Jenna and Asha Randall and 800m runner Andrew Osagie.
The Team GB gang proved they are the new hot guests to top VIP lists - overtaking reality stars and wannabes as the must-have guests at glittering events.
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The Olympians brought their medals to the event, and showed them off to an over-awed crowd - including a clearly delighted singer Kylie Minogue, who posed for photographs with the sporting heroes after performing at the event.
Two can play at that game! Kim Kardashian upstages sister... by wearing the same dress
Kim Kardashian certainly knows how to fill a dress.
The stunning reality star poured her famous curves into Herve Leger bandage dress - the same one worn by her younger sister Khloe a few days ago.
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No doubt Khloe will not be impressed with her sister, who has apparently gone on another wardrobe raiding mission, as has been well documented in their reality show.
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The figure hugging dress suited Kim's figure down to the ground - although Khloe, 26, did not fare so well in the number when she wore it out to an event on Tuesday.
Kim was pictured out last night having dinner with her American actress friend LaLa Vasquez at Nobu restaurant in West Hollywood.
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But it seems today the reality star is on a mission to replenish her clothing supplies, after tweeting a picture of herself wearing a Victoria Beckham dress while out shopping.
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She posted the accompanying message: 'What do u think @vbfashionweek ? Should I get this new FAB Victoria Beckham dress?'
She also recently tweed a picture of her new Rolls Royce Ghost car.
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Kim tweeted cryptically: 'I think my house is now haunted...I see a Ghost!!!' And added a link to a picture of the stunning $250,000 car - a sister version to the bigger Phantom.
The eight-speed automatic transmission luxury car goes from 60 mph in 4.7 seconds and has a top speed of 155 mph.
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The star of Keeping Up With The Kardashians recently split from boyfriend Miles Austin, an NFL player.
Mariners' Ken Griffey Jr. offers no apologies for sudden exit
"More than nine months after retiring in silence, Ken Griffey Jr. returned to the Mariners with something to say.
With a hushed voice and subdued look, Griffey explained Wednesday why he drove off into retirement last June without telling his teammates, manager or general manager beforehand. Griffey is in Mariners camp in his new role as a special consultant to a team that hopes he'll make his voice heard to younger players.
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But before he could speak to them about the future, Griffey knew he had to address the past. His explanation to reporters at the Peoria Sports Complex was brief, and he insisted he wouldn't talk again about the topic that shocked Seattle during a disastrous 2010 season.
Griffey said he told team president Chuck Armstrong and CEO Howard Lincoln "that if I become a distraction or feel that I would be a distraction, then I would retire, because that's the one thing that I didn't want.
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"Second, I gave myself a little bit of a head start. There are a lot of people that are friends of mine that would have tried to talk me out of it. And I just felt that it was best for me and the organization to retire. Through no fault of its own. Things happen. I'm not upset. I think people thought I was upset about certain things, but that's not the case."
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Still, Griffey has yet to speak to former manager Don Wakamatsu, despite the close relationship the two shared during the 2009 season. When asked why he still hasn't contacted Wakamatsu, his reply was blunt.
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"My phone rings," he said. After pausing several seconds, he added: "That's just the way it is."www.kinggriffeyshoesonline.com
Several players, sources and Wakamatsu himself have said that the two stopped speaking in the weeks before Griffey's retirement."
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Re: Depp’s Latest Opens in The Avengers Shadow
I think Depp is the only thing that draws people to the movie, but just as you said, as of late that draws is diminishing. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory and Alice in Wonderland were family pictures so the draw was there, Dark Shadows doesn't have that built in draw; both points of which you already made. I like Depp, I think he's a very talented individual but enough already with the makeup and costumes. I used to like Burton, but the most recent film of his that I enjoyed was Big Fish and prior to that it was Ed Wood...so his credibility with me is about gone.
By Joe on
5/10/2012 12:20 PM
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Re: Depp’s Latest Opens in The Avengers Shadow
well Bill, it looks like we may get our wish...Dark Shadows doesn't look like its tracking very well.
By Joe on
5/12/2012 6:19 PM
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Re: Depp’s Latest Opens in The Avengers Shadow
well Bill, it looks like we may get our wish...Dark Shadows doesn't look like its tracking very well.
By Joe on
5/12/2012 7:56 PM
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Re: Depp’s Latest Opens in The Avengers Shadow
well Bill, it looks like we may get our wish...Dark Shadows doesn't look like its tracking very well.
By Joe on
5/12/2012 10:16 PM
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Re: Depp’s Latest Opens in The Avengers Shadow
I love being right about this movie!
By Bill Bonfanti on
5/14/2012 12:03 PM
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Re: Depp’s Latest Opens in The Avengers Shadow
Sorry for the triplicate posts Bill...computer issues.
So, in honor of Barnabas' disappointing return, can we finally put the Depp/Burton partnership to rest? At least until Burton decides to make something original!
By Joe on
5/14/2012 5:15 PM
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