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Written by:
Bill Bonfanti
7/18/2012 2:46 PM
BOX OFFICE PREDICTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND OF JULY 20-22
There is only one new film opening in wide release this weekend: This is the weekend that fanboys have been drooling in anticipation waiting for as Warner Bros. releases the highly anticipated threequel The Dark Knight Rises. At the beginning of the year, it seemed like a no-brainer that the film would set a new opening weekend record, but after the stellar opening set by The Avengers ($207.4 million) this past May, the record may be out of reach for the Caped Crusader. The Avengers had the advantage of surcharges from 3D showings boosting the gross even further and may make it impossible for Batman to catch up. Nonetheless, the latest Batman flick is going to do huge business this weekend and will likely have the second biggest opening weekend of all time. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate about $274.2 million over the weekend, up a substantial 34.7% from last year when Paramount’s Captain America: The First Avenger and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II from Warner Bros. led the overall Top 10 to a total of $179.1 million. After four years of delirious anticipation, Warner Bros. releases the third and final film in Christopher Nolan’s epic Batman trilogy, The Dark Knight Rises. A few short months ago, the film seemed to be destined to be the biggest box office hit of the year, but Marvel’s Avengers set the bar incredibly high with a record setting opening of $207.4 million and a total gross of $613.8 million so far. The latest bat flick will likely not be able to soar quite as high due to a couple of reasons, but nonetheless we are looking at a gargantuan opening for the film and a hefty overall gross. The Marvel superhero team had the benefit of higher premium ticket prices for both 3D and IMAX showings. The Dark Knight Rises will play on more IMAX screens than Iron Man and friends, but does not have the benefit of 3D. The Batman films are also much darker and adult minded than Marvel’s Avengers and will not benefit from family traffic the way that film did. The Avengers also opened in a weaker marketplace, devoid of any real competition whereas The Dark Knight Rises will lose some audience to holdovers Ted and The Amazing Spider-Man. Given, these films will take a severe blow from the Caped Crusader this weekend, but they will still steal away nearly $30 million in potential ticket sales.
The last film, The Dark Knight, opened to a then record $158.3 million, currently the third biggest debut of all time. The film went on to collect $533.3 million and currently ranks as the fourth biggest domestic hit of all time. The Dark Knight’s opening was fueled by curiosity surrounding Heath Ledger’s performance as the Joker after his untimely death and the overall quality of the first film in the series, Batman Begins. The Dark Knight is regarded by many as the best comic book film of all time and as such, anticipation for the third film is enormous. This will help the film have a stronger opening than its predecessor. This was the case for Spider-Man 3 which opened with a then record setting $151.1 million because of how beloved Spider-Man 2 was when it was released. The Dark Knight Rises also should see an opening weekend spike in attendance because it is the final film in the series. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 opened with $169.2 million (currently the second biggest opening of all time) improving upon the last films $125 million debut by a large margin.
Another reason The Dark Knight Rises will likely enjoy a higher opening than The Dark Knight is that filmmaker Christopher Nolan’s fanbase has increased due to the well-regarded sequel and his 2010 box office smash Inception. While the villains in the latest film aren’t quite as potent a combination as the Joker and Two-Face, both Catwoman and Bane have legions of fans and the spot on casting of Anne Hathaway and Tom Hardy should generate plenty of interest. Hathaway has had quite a career at the box office appearing in quite a few hits and her presence may entice a female audience that might otherwise be disinterested in the film. Hardy broke out in a strong supporting turn in Nolan’s Inception, but hasn’t yet been able to translate that to success at the box office. His films Warrior and This Means War didn’t fare very well, but his role as Bane will likely increase his drawing power in the future.
The overall gross for The Dark Knight has set the bar extremely high for the latest film and it is possible, despite what will likely be a larger opening weekend, The Dark Knight Rises will fall short of the mark. The Dark Knight was able to stay very strong over the rest of the summer due to incredible word of mouth and lack of any major competition besides The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor. The Dark Knight Rises will face Total Recall, The Bourne Legacy and The Expendables 2 in just a few short weeks. This will likely diminish the films staying power in comparison to the last film. I expect The Dark Knight Rises to open with a ginormous $192 million.
To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.
Weekend Release Schedule, 2012 vs. 2011
All debuting titles for the weekend are in red.
JULY 20-22 2012
|
RANK
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
|
FILMGO’S PREDICTION
|
|
1
|
The Dark Knight Rises
|
Action/Adventure
|
Warner Bros.
|
$192.0M
New
|
|
2
|
Ice Age: Continental Drift
|
Animated Adventure
|
20th Century Fox
|
$29.4M
-37%
|
|
3
|
The Amazing Spider-Man
|
Action/Adventure
|
Sony/Columbia
|
$15.2M
-56%
|
|
4
|
Ted
|
Comedy
|
Universal
|
$13.0M
-42%
|
|
5
|
Brave
|
Animated Adventure
|
Disney/Pixar
|
$6.6M
-41%
|
|
6
|
Magic Mike
|
Comedy/Drama
|
Warner Bros.
|
$5.0M
-44%
|
|
7
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Savages
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Action/Thriller
|
Universal
|
$4.9M
-48%
|
|
8
|
Moonrise Kingdom
|
Drama
|
Focus Features
|
$3.0M
-20%
|
|
9
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Madea’s Witness Protection
|
Comedy
|
Lionsgate
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$2.7M
-52%
|
|
10
|
Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted
|
Animated Comedy
|
DreamWorks
|
$2.4M
-34%
|
TOTAL $274.2M
JULY 22-24 2011
|
RANK
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO
|
WEEKEND GROSS
|
|
1
|
Captain America: The First Avenger
|
Action/Adventure
|
Paramount
|
$65.1M
New
|
|
2
|
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
|
Adventure
|
Warner Bros.
|
$47.4M
-72%
|
|
3
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Friends With Benefits
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Sony
|
$18.6M
New
|
|
4
|
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
|
Action/Adventure
|
Paramount
|
$12.1M
-43%
|
|
5
|
Horrible Bosses
|
Comedy
|
Warner Bros.
|
$11.9M
-33%
|
|
6
|
Zookeeper
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Sony
|
$8.7M
-29%
|
|
7
|
Cars 2
|
Animated Adventure
|
Disney/Pixar
|
$5.7M
-33%
|
|
8
|
Winnie the Pooh
|
Adventure
|
Disney
|
$5.2M
-34%
|
|
9
|
Bad Teacher
|
Comedy
|
Sony
|
$2.6M
-49%
|
|
10
|
Midnight in Paris
|
Romantic Comedy
|
Sony Pictures Classics
|
$1.8M
-4%
|
TOTAL $179.1M
Based on my estimates for the weekend, total box office will be up about 34.7% from 2011.
Preview of Films Opening Next Weekend
Predictions for the Weekend of July 27-29 2012
There are two new films opening in wide release the weekend of July 27-29: Ben Stiller, Vince Vaughn and Jonah Hill team up for R-rated comedy The Watch from 20th Century Fox and Summit Entertainment goes back to the well once again with PG-13 dance flick Step Up: Revolution, the fourth in the series. Both films will be competing with the second weekend of The Dark Knight Rises and as such they have their work cut out for them. The Watch, which centers on the alien invasion of a suburban town, may serve as good counter-programming for those looking for a laugh and stars Stiller, Vaughn and Hill are usually reliable draws at the box office. Step Up: Revolution will likely continue the downward trend started by the last film in the tired series and open with underwhelming results.
|
TITLE
|
GENRE
|
DISTRIBUTOR
|
PREDICTION
|
|
The Watch
|
Comedy
|
20th Century Fox
|
$28.0M
|
|
Step Up: Revolution
|
Drama
|
Summit Entertainment
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$12.0M
|
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Re: The Dark Knight Rises to the Top of the Charts
Bill,
I honestly don't think you left anything for me to include, as to my why I think The Dark Knight Rises is going to perform as highly as I think it will. The only thing I'll add is that I think the film will easily set an IMAX record, and I think there will be far more adult repeat viewings than there were for The Avengers. However, I also believe that The Avengers appealed to young and old and had the benefit of 3D, whereas The Dark Knight Rises isn't in 3D and is a much darker film.
Regardless, there is little doubt that the movie is going to be HUGE! I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if it does open over $200M, but I too think it's going to fall short; I just think it's going to get just a tad closer than you do. I've got it at $198M, and don't think it reaches $600M over-all.
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