Hi.  Welcome to my first official box office prediction.  This is an extremely tough weekend to predict.  The Dark Knight is most certainly the hardest film to predict in quite some time.  The last film, Batman Begins was really well received and was a relaunching  of the franchise.  It made just under $50 million on it’s opening weekend with a final domestic cume of just north of $200 million.  These numbers are impressive but expect the sequel to sail right past them.   I believe the last films opening weekend wasn’t as big as it could’ve been due to people still recovering from the atrocious Batman and Robin.  That being said, Christopher Nolan was able to successfully relaunch the franchise and The Dark Knight has to be judged as a second film, not as a sixth.  Batman Begins has also been able to pick up fans who stayed away from theatres, on DVD and repeated showings on cable.   Normally when the first film in a super hero franchise is a hit, the sequel tends to make about 50 – 60% more on it’s opening weekend.  A perfect example would be the X-Men films.  The original made $55 million on it’s opening weekend compared to $85 million made by X-Men 2.  With that in mind it would be easy to predict that The Dark Knight makes roughly $80 million this weekend.   Unfortunately it’s not that simple.  The reviews have been unbelievable and there is massive buzz surrounding the late Heath Ledgers performance as The Joker.  This is being hyped as the definitive Batman film that fans have been waiting to see.  I think it very well could be the best comic book film of all time.  At the very least, it will prove to people what I’ve been saying for 20 years, the original 1989 Batman stinks.   Spiderman 3 opened to $150 million last year and there are some that believe The Dark Knight can top this.  I’m not one of them.   The Dark Knight is a much darker film than Spiderman 3, and much less family friendly.   I believe The Dark Knight will open with roughly $125 million this weekend.

Two other films are opening this weekend, Mamma Mia, based on the hit Broadway play, and the animated comedy, Space Chimps.   I think Mamma Mia will be a moderate hit, grossing $26 million this weekend on it’s way to a final cume of $85 – 90 million.   Space Chimps will make about $8 million this weekend with a total of about $30 million before it heads off to DVD and television.

There are also many holdovers from previous weeks that stand a chance to make good money this weekend as well.  First up is Hellboy 2.  With added competition from Batman, Hellboy should drop 60% this weekend, grossing $15 million.  Despite poor reviews from critics, Hancock has proven it has legs, but with The Dark Knight ruling the multiplexes, expect the Will Smith flick to drop 55% to $15 million.  Journey to the Center of the Earth should finish with about $12 million this weekend.   The Pixar hit, Wall-E should drop another 40% this weekend grossing another $11 – 12 million.  Also expect Indiana Jones  and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull  and Iron Man to be in a virtual tie for the claim to the box office hit of the year so far by  the end of this weekend.