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Jan 16

Written by: Bill Bonfanti
1/16/2009 2:03 PM 

 

I’m not sure why, but January, usually a terrible month at the box office, has had two big weekends and it looks like the third frame of the month will be no different.   With 4 new releases and one film expanding nationwide, moviegoers have a plethora of choices.
Following on the heels of last weekend’s surprise horror hit, The Unborn, Lionsgate offers a remake of the 1981 cult classic My Bloody Valentine in 3-D. Featuring a largely unknown cast, with the exception of Jensen Ackles, star of the WB’s cult show Supernatural, Valentine looks to take a decent cut out of the box office this weekend. Horror films generally don’t have a long shelf life at the box office, so The Unborn shouldn’t hurt Valentines chances. With a third of theatres playing it in 3-D at higher ticket prices, My Bloody Valentine should gross $22M over the Friday to Sunday span.
Kevin James stars in the comedy Paul Blart: Mall Cop and I suspect it will be a decent hit. This is Kevin James’ first solo outing after playing second banana to Will Smith in Hitch and Adam Sandler in I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry, and I believe he could possibly fill the comedy mantle left vacant by the late, great John Candy. The trailer for Blart has long reminded me of Candy’s silly but hysterical, Who’s Harry Crumb, and I can’t wait to see it. There is much to be said about a great, stupid movie. I’m going out on a limb… Paul Blart: Mall Cop will open in first place with $28M over the three day span.
Following Beverly Hills Chihuahua, Bolt and Marley & Me, yet another movie about canines, Hotel for Dogs opens this weekend. My kids have been begging me to take them to see this since they saw the trailer over the summer and I’m sure they’re not alone. I would normally think that there can’t possibly be another hit movie about dogs, but I would be wrong. With little competition from other kid flicks, Hotel for Dogs may open to about $19M this weekend.
Following the life of murdered hip hop star Biggie Smalls, Notorious makes its way into theatres this weekend.    This film should appeal to all fans of hip hop, especially fans of Biggie. With fewer venues then all other new releases, Notorious could walk away with about $18M over the Friday to Sunday period.
After a few weeks in limited release, Holocaust drama, Defiance starring Daniel Craig and Liev Schreiber, expands to over 1500 theatres this weekend. Director Ed Zwick is known for his epic films (The Last Samurai, Glory, and Blood Diamond) and Defiance looks to fit in with the rest of his films. Reviews have been mixed however, so expect Defiance to walk away with about $8M this weekend. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.
RANK
TITLE
BILL’S PREDICTION
1
Paul Blart: Mall Cop
$28M
2
My Bloody Valentine 3-D
$22M
3
Gran Torino
$20.5M -30%
4
Hotel for Dogs
$19M
5
Notorious
$18M
6
Bride Wars
$12.7M -40%
7
The Unborn
$8.9M -55%
8
Defiance
$8M
9
Marley & Me
$6.3M -45%
10
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
$5.5M -40%

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