Every now and again, the pattern of the box office changes. Usually January is a waste land at the theatres with studios releasing movies that they don’t have much confidence in. A funny thing is happening this year however. Moviegoers are rushing to theatres to see just about everything. Could it be all the bad weather driving people to theatres? Is it the state of the economy making people look for any escape they can? Is it simply higher quality movies being released this year? I think it is a mixture of the three, but it also seems like each weekend, studios are offering more choices to audiences. This past weekend alone had 5 completely different movies open. There was a silly comedy, a kid’s movie, a horror flick, a bio pic about a slain hip-hop star and a serious drama about the Holocaust. It seems that studios are finally realizing that audiences aren’t made up of only young men and teenage boys. People outside of that demographic will go to the movies if there is something for them to see.   More choices equal more dollars. Every movie in the top 5 this weekend grossed over $17M, making this the biggest January weekend in history. One thing is for sure, this change in box office pattern has made it a ton of fun to predict weekend grosses.

With most forecasts falling in the $12M range, I honestly thought I was crazy predicting a $28M weekend take for Paul Blart: Mall Cop, but it turns out that I wasn’t crazy enough. Despite bad reviews, Kevin James’ first solo outing in a movie grossed a muscular $33.8M, making James a bankable leading man.   Hurray for the king of Queens! It has been reported that James has been cast in the starring role of the upcoming comedy Zookeeper which is a perfect follow up to Mall Cop. Expect Kevin James to make quite the splash at the box office over the next couple of years.

Opening in third place this weekend is the well reviewed horror flick (that seems like an oxymoron), My Bloody Valentine 3-D, with $21.9M, proving for the second weekend in a row, that audiences love a good scare. Last weekend, The Unborn, collected just under $20M and even with competition from Valentine, managed to only drop a reasonable 50%, grossing another $9.8M this weekend. Both films will be in for some more competition this Friday when Underworld: Rise of the Lychans opens.

Notorious, the bio pic about slain hip-hop star Biggie Smalls opened to a sizzling $21.5M just missing third place. Opening on fewer screens that this weekend’s other new releases, Notorious had the highest per screen average in the top 10 and the biggest debut ever for Fox Searchlight.  

Dogs once again proved their box office prowess, with Hotel for Dogs making a decent debut with $17.7M. This is the fourth movie in as many months to feature canines and audiences have been faithful to man’s best friend. With no real competition on the horizon, Hotel for Dogs should display good legs and wind up with a final gross in the $65M range.

Expanding from 2 to 1789, Holocaust drama, Defiance, collected a solid $9.2M in its first weekend of wide release. Defiance will have a rough road ahead if it doesn’t receive any Academy Award nominations, with audience’s attention being diverted to those lucky films that do receive nods. To see how all of my predictions fared, check out the chart below.