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Jan 22

Written by: Bill Bonfanti
1/22/2009 2:53 PM 

The January box office seems like it should slow down after 3 terrific weekends including the record setting Martin Luther King frame, but it’s not going to. Sure, I don’t believe any movies will gross over $20M, but with 2 new releases and a couple of films expanding into more theatres, amid Oscar nominations, expect it to be a good weekend for studios.
First up is Underworld: Rise of the Lychans, the third movie in the vampire/werewolf franchise. However this one is a prequel and doesn’t feature the star of the previous 2, Kate Beckinsale. Seeing the beautiful Kate kick ass in tight black leather definitely helped the box office on the first 2 movies and the lack of her presence will certainly hurt Rise of the LychansUnderworld: Evolutions (the second film) grossed $26.9M upon its opening, a slight bump up from the originals $21.8M in 2003. I’m not a fan of these movies and I don’t think the latest entry in the series is going to be as successful as the other ones. Entering a crowded marketplace with no real star power attached, I expect Underworld: Rise of the Lycans to debut with in second place with about $18M.
The other new release for the weekend is the fantasy adventure film, Inkheart, starring Brendan Fraser. This is the third adventure movie starring Fraser to be released since last summer. Both Journey to the Center of the Earth 3-D and The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor were $100M hits but I don’t believe Inkheart will follow suit, even with a built in fan base from the hit novel of the same name. Journey did well because it was in 3-D and The Mummy performed because it was the third chapter in an established, hit franchise. Also reviews haven’t been great and audiences may be suffering from a little Brendan Fraser fatigue. Look for Inkheart to open at #4 with $12M.
After winning a ton of Golden Globes last week, Slumdog Millionaire had a nice bump in its box office take. This weekend should be no different with an Oscar nomination for Best Picture. Not to mention that Slumdog is expanding from 580 screens to over 1300. Look for Slumdog Millionaire to be up 60% and gross $9.3M for the weekend. Also expanding from limited release to 800 theatres this weekend is both Frost/Nixon and Revolutionary RoadFrost/Nixon has been losing some steam week after week in limited release but a couple of Oscar nods should help its chances. On the other hand, Revolutionary Road has been performing quite well in limited release but its lack of Oscar noms could hurt its chances this weekend. Look for Frost/Nixon to make $4M and Revolutionary Road to make about $7.5M.
After receiving 13 Oscar nominations, I would expect The Curious Case of Benjamin Button to have a nice jump this weekend, although no one seems to agree with me about this. I would expect Benjamin Button to be up about 30% and add another $7M to its $100M+ gross. To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.
RANK
TITLE
BILL’S PREDICTION
1
Paul Blart: Mall Cop
$19M -40%
2
Underworld: Rise of the Lychans
$18M
3
Gran Torino
$15.3M -30%
4
Inkheart
$12M
5
Hotel for Dogs
$11.5M -35%
6
My Bloody Valentine 3-D
$10M -55%
7
Slumdog Millionaire
$9.3M +60%
8
Revolutionary Road
$7.5M
9
Notorious
$7.1M -65%
10
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
$7M +30%

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