This weekend at multiplexes, movie goers are offered 2 new releases and a final chance to see the nominees before the Oscar ceremony on Sunday night. Tyler Perry offers his seventh movie in just 3 years, Madea Goes to Jail and Fired Up will try to entertain teenage boys looking for a laugh.

It will certainly be no surprise when Madea Goes to Jail opens at #1 this weekend. The real question is whether the return to Tyler’s signature character, Madea, will give him his largest opening yet or will it continue the box office decline of Perry’s films? My guess is that Madea Goes to Jail will not be Tyler’s best debut, but I expect to open better than Perry’s latest films, such as The Family That Preys, which opened to $17.3M less than 6 months ago. Let’s take a look at Perry’s box office record.

 Madea’s Family Reunion - $30M opening - $63.25M cume
 Diary of a Mad Black Woman - $21.9M opening - $50.6M cume

 Why Did I Get Married - $21.3M opening - $55.2M cume
Meet the Browns - $20.1M opening - $42M cume
The Family That Preys - $17.3M opening - $37.1M cume
Daddy’s Little Girls - $11.2M opening - $31.3M cume

Perry’s movies tend to make about half of their money in the first weekend and Madea Goes to Jail will be no different. With the return of Madea, I would expect a debut of about $26M for this one and a total gross of about $58M.

This weekend’s other new entry is the PG-13 comedy Fired Up which tells the tale of two high school football players who enroll in cheerleading camp to hook up with all the hot chicks. This is low brow humor to say the very least and I’m sure that it is going to bomb, very much like last fall’s atrocious College. I would think Fired Up will make about $6M this weekend if it’s lucky.

As far as holdovers go, expect Friday the 13^th to have a massive drop of 70% from last weekend and Valentine’s Day champ He’s Just Not That Into You to decline about 55%. Audiences will have one last weekend to check out Slumdog Millionaire before it kicks serious Oscar ass on Sunday night. I expect Slumdog to have no decline at all this weekend, adding another $7.3M to its impressive total of $88M.  To see the rest of my predictions, check out the chart below.