Halloween weekend at the movies features 2 new releases and 2 films expanding from limited to nationwide release. First up is Kevin Smith’s latest raunchy comedy, Zack and Miri Make a Porno. Kevin Smith’s movies don’t generally light the box office on fire, but Zack and Miri is poised to perform better than his last films, thanks to the star power of current comedy champ, Seth Rogen. Rogen has anchored three hit comedies in the past two years (Knocked Up, Superbad and Pineapple Express) and audiences aren’t even close to sick of him yet. Zack and Miri should gross about $11M this weekend, which is a solid start, but not enough (in my opinion) to knock current box office champ, High School Musical 3, out of the top spot. HSM3 will surely suffer a steep decline in its second outing. Look for a drop of 65%, giving HSM3 another $15M to add to its gross and another week on top of the charts. The other new...

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The Wildcats won the box office gold this weekend with High School Musical 3 grossing an impressive $42M, a few notches above my $40M prediction. This was a big gamble for Disney and it seems like it paid off. However, I don’t expect it to have legs, as the fan base certainly came out in full force this weekend and HSM3 should be in for a steep decline at the box office. Saw V debuted with $30M, the exact take of its predecessors and should finish with about $60M - $65M overall. The new Ed Norton police thriller, Pride & Glory, underperformed, grossing $6.2M. Audiences just don’t seem to be excited about procedural thrillers these da

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After the first two High School Musical movies premiered on TV to blazing success, Disney will launch the third movie, High School Musical 3 in theatres this weekend. This is a highly unprecedented move by the studio that is going to work, big time. High School Musical has a fervent fan base of young girls which will surely rush out to see the third chapter this weekend. There is really no other movie in recent history to compare to HSM3 and project it’s weekend gross, other that Hannah Montana: Best of Both Worlds 3-D, which opened in February to an impressive $31M. There are still major differences though. Hannah Montana opened in just under 700 theatres (compared to HSM3’s 3400), was billed as a one week event (Disney later expanded the run), and tickets were $15 each. That means that about 2 million tickets were sold for Hannah Montana, and I believe that HSM can double that. I would expect HSM3 to make about $40M this weekend.

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Mark Wahlberg’s new action flick, Max Payne got off to a decent start this weekend, grossing $18M, exactly as I predicted.  This should lead to a decent overall gross, probably in the $70M - $80M area. It’s overall domestic gross will not be enough to green light a sequel, but if it performs well overseas and on DVD, Mr. Wahlberg may be looking at his first franchise. Of other new releases, The Secret Life of Bees, opened better than I expected, grossing a healthy $11.1M. Although reviews of Bees were mixed, a strong fan base from the bestselling novel allowed for a great opening weekend. Voters…. I mean… moviegoers weren’t all that excited about Oliver Stone’s W., which opened in fourth place with an estimated $10.5M. As I said Thursday, this film has opened at the wrong time and should have been held off until Bush is out of office. If they had waited for the next administration, I believe audiences would...

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The Box office crown went to the dogs again this weekend as Beverly Hills Chihuahua spent its second week on top of the box office with $17.5M bringing its total to $52M so far. Of new releases, audiences weren’t too excited for the new spy thriller, Body of Lies. Leo’s latest flick opened with a disappointing $13.1M, well below my prediction of $18M. Perhaps audiences felt it was too similar to The Departed, with Leo playing a character who is deep undercover. It seems men decided to spend their weekend watching football rather than a film about football. The inspirational true sports tale, The Express opened to a dismal $4.7M. The season’s first horror entry, Quarantine, opened nicely, scaring up $14.2M. Quarantine has one more weekend by itself before Saw V opens on the 24th, which should give it enough time to reach its target audience of horror buffs. The family science fiction film, City...

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Ridley Scott pairs two of today’s most celebrated actors, Leonardo DiCaprio and Russell Crowe, for his new spy thriller, Body of Lies. The film is being reviewed well and audiences will certainly want to check out DiCaprio’s latest electrifying performance. The movie will open with around $18M this weekend.   Dennis Quaid lends his star power to The Express, the uplifting true story of the first African American to win the Heisman Trophy. The Express will

 

The movies went to the dogs this weekend as Beverly Hills Chihuahua opened at #1 this weekend with $29M. This was an excellent debut for this film and there is little competition over the next few weeks which will allow Chihuahua to pass the $100M mark. Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist opened as expected with $12M. Ed Harris’ Appaloosa expanded to over 1000 theatres in its third week of release and grossed an impressive $5M, proving that there is still an audience for Westerns if they’re done right. Of the 5 other new releases this weekend, An American Carol took the most cash with $3.8M, but the big winner was Bill Maher’s Religulous, which grossed $3.5M in just 500 theatres. Flash of Genius, Blindness and How to Lose Friends and Alienate People all crashed and burned making $2.3M, $2M and $1.4M respectively. To see how the rest of my predictions fared, see the chart below.

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I have to be honest. This is a pretty boring weekend to predict. There are a total of seven new movies entering the fray (with only 2 having box office potential) and Ed Harris’ western epic Appaloosa expands to about 800 theatres.   First up, is Disney’s talking animal comedy, Beverly Hills Chihuahua. This movie is a lock for the number one spot this weekend as awareness is high and the only competition comes from Igor which is entering its third weekend and probably its last in the top ten. Look for Beverly Hills Chihuahua to make $28M this weekend. 

Michael Cera’s new romantic teen comedy, Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist, should enjoy a good first weekend. Cera starred in two of last year’s biggest hits, Juno and Superbad, and has built up a solid fan base.  Nick and Norah’s Infinite Playlist should open up to the tune of $13M. 

Also opening this weekend, Blindness, starring...

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