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Author: Bill Bonfanti Created: 7/17/2008 1:04 PM
Bill's box office predictions and more.



This Thanksgiving weekend, moviegoers can be thankful for 3 new releases; holiday comedy Four Christmases, epic drama Australia and action sequel Transporter 3. There are also 3 major holdovers that can make a nice dent in the box office; last week’s #1 Twilight will try to retain the top spot, while animated comedy, Bolt will try not to slip off too much and of course James Bond will continue to slay audiences with Quantum of Solace.

Four Christmases is a holiday comedy that forces an unmarried couple (Reese Witherspoon and Vince Vaughn) to attend four Christmas celebrations in one day. The question is why Vince, why? After last year’s box office bomb Fred Claus, why in the world is Vince Vaughn starring in another Christmas themed movie? Was he visited by 3 ghosts that told him he had to change his comedy ways before its too late and discover the comedy in Christmas? Furthermore,...

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Twilight kicked major butt at the box office this weekend, grossing $70.6M, the fourth biggest November opening of all time.   Twilight grossed $36M on Friday (including Thursday midnight showings), then fell 41% to $21M on Saturday, followed by another dip of 35% Sunday to gross $13.7M. As impressive as its total weekend gross is, the declines do not bode well for Twilights future at the box office. With much of the upfront demand out of the way, Twilight will most likely take a big tumble next weekend. The only chance of having legs at the box office is if teen girls come back for repeated showings, very much like they did for Titanic. However, Titanic was 10 years ago and moviegoers habits have changed drastically since then. These days’ movies generally don’t have a long run at the box office like they used to. I remember when I was a kid, seeing ads in the newspaper that said, Back...

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This is sure to be a huge weekend at the multiplexes as the big screen adaptation of Stephanie Meyer’s best-selling vampire novel, Twilight, is set to take a nice bite out of the box office and Disney unleashes its new animated canine comedy, Bolt. Holdovers, Quantum of Solace and Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa are also set to perform well to make this a big box office weekend indeed. The top 4 films alone should have a total gross in the neighborhood of $160M.

Twilight is sure to be #1 with its rabid fan base in a full frenzy for this movie. Advance ticket sales have been through the roof and reviews have been decent. Most people in the industry are comparing the box office chances of Twilight to the success of the Harry Potter movies. I for one think this comparison is weak at best. There is nothing similar about these franchises other than the fact that they started as hit novels. The...

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Quantum of Solace, starring Daniel Craig in his second outing as super spy James Bond, took the box office by force this weekend, taking the #1 spot with $70.4M. This was the highest debut ever for a James Bond film, crushing the previous record of $47M set by 2002’s Die Another Die, starring Pierce Brosnan in his last outing as Mr. Bond. Quantum of Solace also surged 70% from the opening weekend gross of Craig’s first Bond film, Casino Royale, which made $40.8M in its first frame. 

Among holdovers, Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa enjoyed a healthy second weekend, slipping 43% to gross $36.1M for a total cume of $118M. The 43% drop was on par with the second weekend drops of this year’s other animated film hits, Kung Fu Panda and WALL-E, which went on to gross $215M and $223M respectively. Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa should end up in the same range. 

Role Models, starring Paul...

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James Bond is back in Quantum of Solace, the 22nd entry in the popular franchise and he has the box office all to himself this weekend. Daniel Craig returns in his second outing as the dashing spy and expectations are through the roof after the successful reboot of the franchise with 2006’s Casino Royale. Casino Royale was met with universal applause for its grittier take on the Bond character, which is more in line with the action series of today, such as the Jason Bourne trilogy. Unlike other James Bond films which were self contained, Quantum of Solace is different from the other films in the franchise in that it is more like a sequel with the story continuing from the last film. The film picks up with Bond seeking revenge for the murder of his girlfriend, Vesper, in the previous film. During his quest for revenge, Bond stumbles upon a dastardly plot by the shadowy organization known as QUANTUM,...

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The freaks from Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, dominated the box office this weekend, grossing $63.5M, and had the seventh biggest opening of all time for an animated feature. It also enjoyed the best opening for any animated film this year, just edging out this summer’s hit, WALL-E, which grossed $63.1M on its opening weekend.

Role Models starring Paul Rudd and Seann William Scott as two men under a court order to mentor two kids scored big in its first weekend grossing $19.3M. This was a great opening for this movie and it should perform well over the next couple of weeks as the reviews have been good and word of mouth will be positive. This is exactly the kind of success that both Paul Rudd and Seann William Scott needed to cement their status as bankable comedy stars.

This weekend’s final new release, Soul Men, starring Samuel L. Jackson and Bernie Mac opened to a disappointing $5.6M. This...

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The box office is going to be trampled by some zoo animals and a crazy lemur as Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa storms multiplexes this weekend. Anticipation is high for this sequel and if the excitement level of my kids is any indication, the sequel is going to sail past the original Madagascar’s first weekend take of $47.2M. Both Ice Age 2: The Meltdown and Shrek 2 enjoyed huge surges on their opening weekend in comparison to their predecessors, and Madagascar 2 should be no different. I would look for a surge of about 40% putting Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa at about $65M for the weekend.

Sean William Scott and Paul Rudd star in Role Models, a comedy about two men who are ordered by the court to be… well… role models to two troubled kids. Neither of these stars has ever really successfully anchored a hit film by themselves, but I think together, they can certainly strike box office gold. The reviews...

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The students of East High had a great Halloween as High School Musical 3 held on to the #1 spot grossing $15.3M this weekend. HSM3 dropped 65% from last weekend which for a movie with a front loaded audience was quite typical. The film should fall off the charts rather quickly now as it has certainly saturated its audience at this point. HSM3 should wind up with a total of $90M before it is through and I’m sure the good people at Disney are already trying to figure out the best direction to take their hit franchise. Of new releases, Zack and Miri Make a Porno got off to a typical Kevin Smith movie start, grossing $10M. Apparently the presence of Seth Rogen didn’t add any fuel to the box office fire here. Which really begs the question about how big a movie star Seth Rogen really is? This could be proof that he is a bankable leading man only when starring in a Judd Apatow production. It will be interesting...

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Halloween weekend at the movies features 2 new releases and 2 films expanding from limited to nationwide release. First up is Kevin Smith’s latest raunchy comedy, Zack and Miri Make a Porno. Kevin Smith’s movies don’t generally light the box office on fire, but Zack and Miri is poised to perform better than his last films, thanks to the star power of current comedy champ, Seth Rogen. Rogen has anchored three hit comedies in the past two years (Knocked Up, Superbad and Pineapple Express) and audiences aren’t even close to sick of him yet. Zack and Miri should gross about $11M this weekend, which is a solid start, but not enough (in my opinion) to knock current box office champ, High School Musical 3, out of the top spot. HSM3 will surely suffer a steep decline in its second outing. Look for a drop of 65%, giving HSM3 another $15M to add to its gross and another week on top of the charts. The other new...

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The Wildcats won the box office gold this weekend with High School Musical 3 grossing an impressive $42M, a few notches above my $40M prediction. This was a big gamble for Disney and it seems like it paid off. However, I don’t expect it to have legs, as the fan base certainly came out in full force this weekend and HSM3 should be in for a steep decline at the box office. Saw V debuted with $30M, the exact take of its predecessors and should finish with about $60M - $65M overall. The new Ed Norton police thriller, Pride & Glory, underperformed, grossing $6.2M. Audiences just don’t seem to be excited about procedural thrillers these da

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