This weekend, one of the last remaining potential summer blockbusters opens along with one movie for the adults and one for the kids. Universal and DreamWorks release sci-fi western mash-up Cowboys & Aliens from Iron Man director Jon Favreau, Sony hopes to entice families with The Smurfs and adult audiences may finally have a movie they can embrace with relationship comedy Crazy, Stupid, Love from Warner Bros.   Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate $168.4 million this weekend, up about 23.5% from last year when Warner Bros. Inception and Paramount’s Dinner For Schmucks led the overall Top 10 to a gross of $128.8 million. 

Paramount’s Captain America: The First Avenger, the final superhero film of the summer, easily bested Harry Potter at the box office this weekend. According to estimates, Marvel’s patriotic hero had the best debut of the superhero movies this summer, just edging out Marvel’s own Thor. Sony’s buddy sex comedy, Friends With Benefits, starring Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis, opened in third place. After a massive opening weekend, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II from Warner Bros. experienced a massive sophomore weekend drop off, which was to be expected after such a large opening. The film has collected an awesome $274.2 million after only ten days and should wind up the highest grossing film of the summer (and probably the year).

This weekend, the fourth and final superhero film for the summer, Paramount’s Captain America: The First Avenger bursts into theatres but the classic Marvel superhero may be overshadowed by the second weekend of the final Harry Potter film.  Before the summer movie season began, we would’ve guessed that Captain America would’ve had the biggest opening of all the superhero films this summer, but signs are pointing towards audience fatigue for men and women in spandex and the patriotic hero may suffer the fallout. Also being released is Sony Screen Gems’ raunchy romantic comedy Friends With Benefits starring Justin Timberlake and Mila Kunis. Last weekend Warner Bros. record setting opening weekend for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II ($169.2 million) led the Top 10 to a 32% increase over last year and the boy wizard is going to push the Top 10 to a decisive victory over last year once again. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate $193.1 million this weekend, up about 22% from last year when Warner Bros. Inception and Sony’s Salt led the overall Top 10 to a gross of $150.7 million. 

The final film in Warner Bros. epic series, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II took the box office by storm breaking all sorts of records in the process. Before it had even opened on Friday, the film was setting records including the record for widest launch in 3D theatres and IMAX screens and also grossed $32.5 million in pre-sale tickets an all-time high. The film all but obliterated the prior records for biggest midnight and biggest opening day and then smashed the all-time biggest weekend record established by The Dark Knight ($158.4 million) on this very weekend three years ago. It also now holds the record for widest launch in 3D theatres and IMAX screens. Disney’s Winnie the Pooh had a modest debut coming in sixth place for the weekend. 

The final film in the epic series, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II is taking the box office by storm and breaking all sorts of records this weekend. The film all but obliterated the prior records for biggest midnight and biggest opening day and is on its way to smashing the all-time biggest weekend record established by The Dark Knight ($158.4 million) on this very weekend three years ago. It also now holds the record for widest launch in 3D theatres and IMAX screens. 

This weekend, arguably the most anticipated film of the year opens, Warner Bros.’ Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II, the grand-finale of the epic series. Fans have been anticipating this film for a decade since the first film opened back in November of 2001 and it is reflected in the huge pre-sales for the film. As of Wednesday, Deathly Hallows Part II is responsible for a staggering 91% of Fandango’s daily ticket sales. The only studio brave enough to open a film against the mighty Potter is Disney which is releasing the traditionally animated Winnie the Pooh. After being down about 22% last weekend in comparison to 2010, the box office will surge ahead this weekend. Based on my estimates, the Top 10 will generate $226.4 million this weekend, up about 25.3% from last year when Warner Bros. Inception led the overall Top 10 to a gross of $169.2 million. 

This weekend two new comedies open at the box office; PG family film Zookeeper from Sony starring Kevin James and New Line Cinema’s R-rated revenge comedy, Horrible Bosses, featuring a large ensemble cast led by Jason Bateman. Both films should enjoy solid debuts in what is shaping up to be a summer filled with comedy hits. Although both films should perform just fine, neither of them will have a chance at knocking current box office king Transformers: Dark of the Moon off its throne. Despite the fact that both movies opening should be solid earners for their respective studios the box office will likely be down for the weekend in comparison to last year.  Based on my estimates of $141.6 million for the overall Top 10, the box office will be down a significant 22.4% in comparison to last year when Universal’s Despicable Me led the Top 10 to an overall total of $182.5 million.

Transformers: Dark of the Moon dominated the Fourth of July weekend collecting an estimated $181.1M since its launch on Tuesday evening through Monday. This was very close to my prediction of $175 million and only down 9.5% from the $200.1 million Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen accumulated during its first six days of release. Of course, the latest Transformers film also had premium tickets sales for 3D showings, a luxury the second film didn’t have. Nonetheless, it was a sizable debut for Dark of the Moon; the biggest of the year so far. This weekend’s other new films, Universal’s Larry Crowne starring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts and 20^th Century Fox’s Monte Carlo both had mild debuts.

The Fourth of July box office numbers are shaping up to quite explosive with Transformers: Dark of the Moon leading the charge as expected. The action threequel isn’t performing as well as the second film in the franchise but it is by far the biggest hit of the year so far. Lower numbers were expected for the sequel after the second film was crucified by critics and most audiences. Dark of the Moon has garnered slightly better reviews from critics, but let’s be honest; the reviews mean nothing for a film like this and won’t add anything to the bottom line. Here’s a side by side comparison of both films openings.

The box office should be on fire over the extended Fourth of July weekend with Paramount and DreamWorks action threequel, Transformers: Dark of the Moon (released Wednesday, June 29^th) set to dominate. Universal’s romantic comedy Larry Crowne starring Tom Hanks and Julia Roberts should have a decent debut and will likely be a sleeper hit, while 20^th Century Fox’s comedy Monte Carlo starring Selena Gomez will likely have a mild opening weekend. Based on my estimate of $194.6 million for the overall Top 10 during the Friday to Sunday period , the box office should be up about 8% over last year when Summit Entertainment’s The Twilight Saga: Eclipse led the overall Top 10 to a total of $178.9 million.