Popcorn Chart: Weekend of June 17th
By Bill Bonfanti
This weekend the popcorn chart takes a look at the movies coming out on June 17th. Two new movies open; Warner Bros. attempts to launch a new franchise with comic book superhero Green Lantern starring Ryan Reynolds and Jim Carrey takes on the classic children's book Mr. Popper's Penguins for 20th Century Fox. My guess is that it will be a tight race for #1 this weekenfd, with these films neck and neck, with the prior weekends Super 8 nipping at their heels.
DC Comics/Warner Bros. has been slow to the start getting their stable of superheroes to the big screen in comparison to Marvel Studios who have three films opening this summer based on their characters (Thor, X-Men: First Class, Captain America: The First Avenger). Warner seems to be on track now launching Green Lantern this summer, a third Batman film from Christopher Nolan next summer with a rebooted Superman from director Zack Snyder scheduled to fly into theatres in December of 2012. Hell, even Wonder Woman is headed back to the small screen again.
Green Lantern marks in inauspicious start to DC’s revival; the character is plenty popular (he’s one of my all-time favorites) but based on the trailer, the tone of the film feels wrong. The biggest problem the film has is the casting of Ryan Reynolds as test pilot/superhero Hal Jordan. While I have no problem with Reynolds as a whole (I’m actually a fan), he’s not the right guy for the part. There are two types of leading men. Those who are stars and those who are actors; Reynolds sits comfortably in the middle of these two types, but unfortunately, it seems that they are playing up his star persona more than the side of serious actor. The part of Hal Jordan requires real acting, not punch-line acting. Think Tobey Maguire as Peter Parker or Christian Bale as Bruce Wayne. This is more like Ben Affleck as Daredevil. Nonetheless, the popularity of the character and the special effects will help make Green Lantern a decent sized hit. The film doesn’t have much breathing room though. It opens on the heels of X-Men: First Class and Super 8 and July is filled with potential blockbusters such as Transformers: Dark of the Moon, the final Harry Potter film and Captain America which will cut off any strong legs that Lantern may have had. Again the film will be a decent hit, but more in the line with Fantastic Four ($154.7 million total) than Iron Man ($318.6 million total).
The marriage of Jim Carrey’s slapstick comedic styling’s and cute little penguins should prove to be a potent force at the box office making this adaption of Newberry medal winner Mr. Popper’s Penguins from 20th Century Fox a sure fire hit. It is always difficult to predict a films box office potential without seeing a trailer, but on paper this sounds like the perfect vehicle for Carrey and it should thrill his fans. With the exception of 2008’s Yes Man, it has been many years since we’ve seen Carrey in a straight up comedic role and I believe audiences will eagerly embrace the one time box office comedy king. Mr. Popper’s Penguins is of course a family film which makes its potential box office even greater. My gut tells me this could be akin to Ben Stiller’s Night at the Museum. That film opened with $30.4 million at the end of December 2006 and displayed incredibly sturdy legs throughout early 2007 going on to a domestic total of $250.9 million. Opening at a particularly crowded time of the summer, I don’t expect Penguins to have the same legs as Museum; Pixar’s juggernaut to be Cars 2 opens the following weekend and Kevin James’ The Zookeeper, the final Harry Potter, Winnie the Pooh and The Smurfs will occupy theatres just weeks after it opens. The competition is ludicrous and makes me think that Mr. Popper’s Penguins should move its release date to take full advantage of its potential. I would say move it to just before Christmas, but competition is fierce at that time of the year as well and I’d be hard pressed to find a better weekend for the film to open on. At any rate, Mr. Popper’s Penguins will have a very nice opening (one of Carrey’s best) and will more than likely pass the century mark with ease.
FINAL PREDICTIONS – I Am Number Four, Unknown, Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son
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RELEASE DATE
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TITLE/HSX STOCK SYMBOL
|
DISTRIBUTOR
|
OPENING WEEKEND
|
POPCORN PERIOD
|
|
2/18/11
|
Big Mommas: Like Father, Like Son
BMOM3
|
20th Century Fox
|
$14M
|
$38M
|
|
2/18/11
|
Unknown
UWMAL
|
Warner Bros.
|
$20M
|
$62M
|
|
2/18/11
|
I Am Number Four
IMNO4
|
Dreamworks
|
$26M
|
$59M
|
|
2/25/11
|
Drive Angry
DRVAN
|
Summit Entertainment
|
$7.5M
|
$13M
|
|
2/25/11
|
Hall Pass
HLPAS
|
New Line Cinema
|
$14M
|
$40M
|
|
3/4/11
|
The Adjustment Bureau
ADJBU
|
Universal
|
$19M
|
$57M
|
|
3/4/11
|
Rango
RANGO
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Paramount
|
$43M
|
$125M
|
|
3/4/11
|
Take Me Home Tonight
TMHTN
|
Relativity Media
|
$4M
|
$11M
|
|
3/4/11
|
Beastly
BSTLY
|
CBS Films
|
$6M
|
$15M
|
|
3/11/11
|
Battle: Los Angeles
BATLA
|
Columbia Pictures
|
$30M
|
$70M
|
|
3/11/11
|
Mars Needs Moms!
MNMOM
|
Disney
|
$18M
|
$58M
|
|
3/11/11
|
Red Riding Hood
GWRRH
|
Warner Bros.
|
$18M
|
$47M
|
|
3/18/11
|
Limitless
LMTLS
|
Relativity Media
|
$14M
|
$39M
|
|
3/18/11
|
The Lincoln Lawyer
LNLAW
|
Lionsgate
|
$12M
|
$32M
|
|
3/18/11
|
Paul
PAUL
|
Universal Pictures
|
$8M
|
$18M
|
|
3/25/11
|
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules
WIMP2
|
20th Century Fox
|
$22M
|
$51M
|
|
3/25/11
|
Sucker Punch!
SUCKP
|
Warner Bros.
|
$24M
|
$53M
|
|
4/1/11
|
Hop
IHOP
|
Universal Pictures
|
$32M
|
$99M
|
|
4/1/11
|
Source Code
SCODE
|
Summit Entertainment
|
$22M
|
$59M
|
|
4/1/11
|
Insidious
NSIDI
|
Film District
|
$8M
|
$20M
|
|
4/8/11
|
Arthur
ATHUR
|
Warner Bros.
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/8/11
|
Soul Surfer
SOSRF
|
Film District/Tri Star Pictures
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/8/11
|
Your Highness
YURHI
|
Universal Pictures
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/8/11
|
Hanna
HANA1
|
Focus Features
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/15/11
|
Rio
RIO
|
20th Century Fox
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/15/11
|
Scream 4
SCRM4
|
Dimension Films
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/15/11
|
The Conspirator
CNSPR
|
Lionsgate
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/22/11
|
Born to be a Star
BTBAS
|
Columbia Pictures
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/22/11
|
Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Big Happy Family
MDBHF
|
Lionsgate
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/22/11
|
Water for Elephants
WELPH
|
20th Century Fox
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/22/11
|
Apollo 18
APO18
|
The Weinstein Co.
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/22/11
|
Haywire
KCOUT
|
Lionsgate
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/22/11
|
African Cats
(AFCAT)
|
Disney Nature
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/29/11
|
Fast Five
FFUR5
|
Universal Pictures
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/29/11
|
Prom
PROM
|
Disney
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/29/11
|
What’s Your Number?
WYNUM
|
New Regency Productions
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
4/29/11
|
Hoodwinked Too: Hood vs. Evil
HDWN2
|
The Weinstein Co.
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
5/6/11
|
Thor
THOR
|
Paramount
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
5/6/11
|
Something Borrowed
STBRW
|
Warner Bros.
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
5/13/11
|
Bridesmaids
BRDSM
|
Universal
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
5/13/11
|
Priest
PRIES
|
Screen Gems
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
5/20/11
|
Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides
PIRT4
|
Disney
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
5/20/11
|
The Beaver
BEAVR
|
Summit Entertainment
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
5/26/11
Thursday
|
The Hangover Part II
HNOV2
|
Warner Bros.
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
5/26/11
Thursday
|
Kung Fu Panda 2
PAND2
|
Paramount
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
6/3/11
|
X-Men: First Class
XMEN4
|
20th Century Fox
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
6/3/11
|
Beginners
BEGNR
|
Focus Features
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
6/10/11
|
Super 8
SUPR8
|
Paramount
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
6/10/11
|
Judy Moody and the Not Bummer Summer
JUDYM
|
Relativity Media
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
6/17/11
|
Green Lantern
GLANT
|
Warner Bros.
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
|
6/17/11
|
Mr. Popper’s Penguins
POPNG
|
20th Century Fox
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
Premium Subscribers Only
|
All release dates are on a Friday unless otherwise noted.
The Popcorn Period represents the box office gross collected after 4 weekends in theatres.