Expect another tight battle for the #1 spot on the charts this weekend as Warner Bros. female-centric action flick Sucker Punch takes on family comedy sequel Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules from 20th Century Fox. While both films are competing for completely different audiences, the opening potential for each film is pretty close. Will Wimpy Kid get sucker-punched this weekend? I think Sucker Punch might land the first blows on Friday, but like the tortoise that beats the hare, Wimpy Kid may be the one left standing by the end of the frame.
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules from 20th Century Fox is based on the second book in the best-selling series written by Jeff Kinsey. The first film in the series opened last March with $22.1 million. In its second and third weekends, the film fell an average of 48% (pretty big for a family film) but thanks to kids being out of school for Spring Break in mid-April, the film managed to become a bit of a sleeper hit, taking in an average of $1 million on weekdays and slipping only about 30% on the weekends. This allowed the film to reach a respectable $64 million box office total and a sequel was quickly put into production. Fox scheduled this Wimpy Kid to open a week later than the prior film in order to capitalize on the vacationing school kids sooner. To be honest, I don’t think it is going to make much of a difference in the long run. I believe Rodrick Rules will stay on par with the first movie one way or another.
Wimpy Kid is the third film aimed at the family audience to be released this month and plenty more competition is on the way. Fortunately for Wimpy Kid, Disney’s Mars Needs Moms crashed and burned and will only steal away about $3 million of the family sequel’s opening potential. Wimpy will still have to contend with Paramount’s Rango though. Although Johnny Depp’s animated Western is entering its fourth weekend in theatres, the film has been holding up well and should account for about $9 million in ticket sales this weekend. Next weekend, Universal’sEaster Bunny comedy Hop (I expect this film to perform very well for exactly four weekends), is going to bounce all over Rodrick Rules. If Hop weren’t enough to contend with, Wimpy Kid 2 will have to deal with competition from its very own distributor when Fox releases animated comedy Rio right in the heart of spring vacation. While I believe the audience interested in Wimpy Kid will make their way to the theatre, all of the other family films will kill any chance the sequel has of expanding its audience. Look for Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules to debut with about $22 million this weekend.
The second new release for the weekend is Warner Bros. fantasy epic, Sucker Punch, from visionary director Zack Snyder. This is Snyder’s fifth film and the first created from an original idea of his. Snyder has a reputation as a visual wizard and as such he has amassed himself a solid fan following. The question is whether his fans (mostly young men) will embrace his latest project which is a fantasy world epic that features virtually an all-female cast. The film stars Emily Browning as Babydoll and co-stars Jena Malone, Abbie Cornish, Vanessa Hudgens and Carla Cugino. The cast doesn’t have all that much going for it in terms of box office potential and leaves the film’s success or failure squarely on Snyder’s shoulders.
The film is about a young woman who is committed to an insane asylum by her evil stepfather and enlists the help of her fellow inmates to escape. The group of girls must enter a fantasy world where they must fight dragons, killer robots and many other creatures in order to escape the confines of the asylum. Based on the preview, the film has all the visual trademarks that separates Snyder from his peers. Here’s a look at Snyder’s other films performed at the box office.
|
RELEASE DATE |
TITLE |
OPENING WEEKEND/TOTAL |
|
9/24/10 |
Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole
Warner Bros. |
$16.1M/$55.7M |
|
3/6/09 |
Watchmen
Warner Bros. |
$55.2M/$107.5M |
|
3/9/07 |
300
Warner Bros. |
$70.9M/$210.6M |
|
3/19/04 |
Dawn of the Dead
Universal |
$26.7M/$59.0M |
Warner Bros. has staked out the month of March for Sucker Punch’s release because for some reason Snyder’s films tend to perform well during that month. My guess is it is because his films have the appeal of big summer blockbusters, just two months sooner. Snyder is a director who seems willing to take chances as evidenced by his last film, an animated adventure films that features owls as the main characters, Legend of the Guardians. The PG film performed moderately well, but it seems as though the director’s fanbase chose to sit this one out, despite having all the style of Snyder’s previous films. Will his fans rally around Sucker Punch? I think most of them will not. Instead Sucker Punch is going to have to rely on and audience of teenage girls to fuel it at the box office.
Sucker Punch is the third fantasy based film released this month that caters to teenage girls. The other films, CBS Films Beastly and Red Riding Hood also from Warner Bros. opened with $9.9 million and $14 million respectively. Sucker Punch should do slightly better for a few reasons. The strength of Snyder’s name will bring in some of his fan base of young men which will help the film to perform better than Beastly or Red. The film is also playing on multiple IMAX screens nationwide and the premium tickets will help goose the opening weekend gross. Look for Sucker Punch to fight its way to about $20 million this weekend.
To see the rest of my predictions for the weekend, check out the chart below.
Weekend Release Schedule, 2011 vs. 2010
All debuting titles for the weekend are in red.
MARCH 25-27 2011
|
RANK |
TITLE |
GENRE |
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO |
BILL’S PREDICTION |
|
1 |
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Rodrick Rules |
Family Comedy |
20th Century Fox |
$22M |
|
2 |
Sucker Punch! |
Action/Fantasy |
Warner Bros. |
$20M |
|
3 |
Limitless |
Thriller/Drama |
Relativity Media |
$10.8M
-43% |
|
4 |
The Lincoln Lawyer |
Thriller/Drama |
Lionsgate |
$9.5M
-28% |
|
5 |
Rango |
Animated Adventure |
Paramount |
$8.8M
-42% |
|
6 |
Paul |
Comedy |
Universal |
$7.3M
-44% |
|
7 |
Battle: Los Angeles |
Sci-Fi/Action |
Columbia |
$6.2M
-57% |
|
8 |
Red Riding Hood |
Fantasy/Horror |
Warner Bros. |
$3.8M
-47% |
|
9 |
The Adjustment Bureau |
Sci-Fi/Drama |
Universal |
$3.2M
-45% |
|
10 |
Mars Needs Moms! |
Animated Adventure |
Disney |
$3.1M
-42% |
TOTAL $94.7M
MARCH 26-28 2010
|
RANK |
TITLE |
GENRE |
DISTRIBUTOR/STUDIO |
WEEKEND GROSS |
|
1 |
How to Train Your Dragon |
Animated Adventure |
Paramount/Dreamworks |
$43.7M |
|
2 |
Alice In Wonderland |
Adventure |
Disney |
$17.7M
-48% |
|
3 |
Hot Tub Time Machine |
Comedy |
MGM Studios |
$14.0M |
|
4 |
The Bounty Hunter |
Romantic Comedy |
Sony |
$12.0M
-42% |
|
5 |
Diary of a Wimpy Kid |
Family Comedy |
20th Century Fox |
$10.1M
-54% |
|
6 |
She’s Out of My League |
Romantic Comedy |
Paramount |
$3.5M
-39% |
|
7 |
Green Zone |
War/Drama |
Universal |
$3.4M
-45% |
|
8 |
Shutter Island |
Thriller/Suspense |
Paramount |
$3.2M
-33% |
|
9 |
Repo Men |
Action |
Universal |
$3.0M
-51% |
|
10 |
Our Family Wedding |
Comedy |
Fox Searchlight |
$2.4M
-37% |
TOTAL $113M
Based on my estimates, total box office will be down about 16.2% from 2010.